Analyst pegs $121,000 as the level to reignite bitcoin’s rally

Analyst and MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe has named $121,000 as the key level for bitcoin to resume its advance.

What goes up, must come down.

Classic liquidity sweep after bad macro data, $BTC back in the range.

Higher timeframe, I would assume we’ll go slightly lower, consolidate, $ETH drops another 10% and then #Altcoins have 1-2 weeks of momentum.

Crucial level to break at $121K. pic.twitter.com/a899Fs9QkE

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 14, 2025

According to the expert, bitcoin’s recent rise reversed after weak macroeconomic data — the published PPI came in above forecasts at 3.3% versus the expected 2.5%. He described the move as a “classic liquidity sweep”, after which the asset returned to its trading range.

Van de Poppe expects that on higher timeframes bitcoin will first dip slightly and then enter a consolidation phase. He also allowed for Ethereum to fall another 10%.

He believes that afterwards altcoins could gain momentum for one to two weeks.

The road to $144,000

Glassnode analysts view $127,000 as key resistance for digital gold. In their view, a breakout could send the price towards $144,000, where sell-side pressure has historically intensified.

#BTC’s average entry price for newer investors and its standard deviation bands help identify overheated zones. $127K marks the +1σ level and key resistance; a breakout could open the path to $144K (+2σ), where prior market tops often trigger increased sell-side pressure. pic.twitter.com/Pwra4t6fn6

— glassnode (@glassnode) August 15, 2025

Glassnode noted that reaching this zone has often coincided with market tops in the past and prompted profit-taking.

The impact of US inflation data

Bitcoin’s recent pullback after reaching ATH triggered forced liquidations of margin positions exceeding $1 billion.

Bitget’s chief analyst Ryan Lee told ForkLog he sees the decline as a technical correction rather than a trend change. According to him, digital gold is holding above $117,000, signalling investor interest.

“The situation does not indicate a change in market conditions, but rather points to speculative positions being shaken out, especially since the first cryptocurrency is confidently holding above $118,000. Further reference points are likely to be linked to macro factors such as the Jackson Hole symposium, as well as the dynamics of on-chain activity,” he said.

TECHNOBIT CEO Alexander Peresichan also called the correction expected after the recent rise. In his view, the inflation data served as a catalyst for profit-taking, not a reason for a trend reversal.

He noted that bitcoin is holding above $117,000, limiting panic selling. Ethereum, despite the pullback, remains above key support at $3,500–$3,600.

It is not so clear-cut

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out that short-term holders (STH) have been selling fewer coins at a loss during market corrections.

During yesterday’s pullback, 16.8K BTC were sent to exchanges at a loss from Short-Term Holders — this is noticeably less than in previous drawdowns. The chart shows a trend of decreasing amplitude of capitulation selling (blue arrows).

This essentially indicates weakening… pic.twitter.com/R9iZbIl4zR

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 15, 2025

During the latest dip, 16,800 BTC from STH flowed to exchanges at a loss — noticeably less than in previous market declines.

The analyst noted a trend of shrinking capitulation-driven selling. In his view, this points to weakening pressure from STH.

Adler Jr also drew attention to the fact that STH on average are selling coins at a profit. The market is absorbing this pressure, which is a bullish signal.

STH SOPR-7d has risen to 1.04 at a price of $119K, meaning short-term holders are on average realizing profits, and the market is absorbing this selling — a bullish sign. The amplitude is still moderate and below the peaks of previous waves 1.06–1.09, so selling pressure from STH… pic.twitter.com/F1MCXhfe3d

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 15, 2025

According to him, the seven-day moving average of SOPR for this cohort has risen to 1.04. Adler Jr noted that the reading remains moderate and has not reached the peaks of previous waves at 1.06–1.09. Selling pressure from STH is not yet extreme.

A positive scenario assumes SOPR holds above 1–1.02. Pullbacks to 1 should be bought quickly, which would indicate strong demand.

A drop of the indicator below 1 would signal weakening demand. In that case, the risk of a deeper correction in bitcoin’s price would rise.

As for long-term holders (LTH), this investor group has increased its reserves by 1.64 million BTC.

Regarding the accumulation-distribution of the Long-Term Holder cohort holding coins from six months to two years: their supply has risen from 3.551M BTC in April (when the price was $83K) to 5.191M BTC currently (+1.64M BTC). During the ATH test at $118K, there was moderate… pic.twitter.com/TTdyHTwV8i

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 15, 2025

In his analysis, Adler Jr looked at LTH holding coins from six months to two years. In April their combined balance was 3.551 million BTC, when the price stood at $83,000. It has now reached 5.191 million BTC.

The expert noted moderate profit-taking during the test of the all-time high at $118,000. The group’s seven-day average spending rose to 20,000 BTC.

Adler Jr stressed that this volume is significantly below typical past selling spikes of 40,000–70,000 BTC.

The data indicate that accumulation outweighs distribution among a significant share of network participants, the analyst concluded.

In June, Adler Jr forecast a “measured” rise in bitcoin to $160,000.