Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Drop to $35,000 Following Nasdaq Decline

Bitcoin could drop to $35,000 if the stock market sees a major correction.

In the event of a significant correction in the stock market, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $35,000. This conclusion was drawn by an expert known by the pseudonym On-Chain Mind.

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— On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind) February 24, 2026

He noted that since 2019, Bitcoin has been trading not as “protective digital gold,” but as “tech stocks with leverage.” The asset’s price movement closely correlates with the Nasdaq 100 index. Meanwhile, the crypto market acts as an “amplifier of traditional financial volatility.”

Historically, during bear trends, Bitcoin’s declines have been 2-4 times deeper than those of the Nasdaq. However, this gap is gradually narrowing due to the influx of institutional investors.

On-Chain Mind calculated the worst macroeconomic scenario at present. If the Nasdaq undergoes a “typical correction” and loses 23%, Bitcoin’s decline would be about 46%.

“At the current price of around $66,000, such a move would bring the rate to $35,000. I estimate the probability of this scenario at 20%,” the analyst wrote.

Cycles Persist

The specialist also reminded of market cycles. It has been about 140 days since the ATH. According to him, historically this is too short a time for the final formation of a bottom — transitioning to a new growth phase takes about 400 days.

Despite potential risks, long-term holding of the asset reduces the likelihood of losses to almost zero. Statistics show that holding Bitcoin for a day or a month carries a 45% chance of losing money. However, if an investor holds assets for more than three years, the risk of going negative falls below 1%.

The analyst emphasized that the main advantage in the crypto market is achieved by patient investors, not those trying to time the perfect trade.

Earlier, on February 24, analysts at Coinbase Institutional identified key price levels for digital gold.