Analyst Proposes Bitcoin Cycle Model Independent of Halving

Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, not linked to halving, says analyst.

Throughout its history, the first cryptocurrency has undergone three cycles, which are not linked to network halving. This was stated by on-chain analyst James Check.

In his view, the pattern is tied to trends in adoption and market structure. For instance, the peak in 2017 and the bottom in 2022 are transition points.

The chart depicts the cycles in different colors:

• red — early retail adoption (2014-2017);
• yellow — Wild West, boom and bust (2018-2022);
• blue — institutional maturity and stability (from 2023).

“Choose your mean reversion model, and they will all have the same transition points and change in their nature,” Check noted.

He added that after the bear market of 2022, the situation changed, and those who rely on the classic cycle model are likely to miss the signal due to “historical noise.”

Although Check’s hypothesis is well-founded, most market analysts still adhere to the classic halving model. Earlier, Glassnode stated that digital gold continues to follow a four-year cycle.

According to their observations, after setting a price record above $124,000, long-term investors actively took profits. The volume of sales is comparable to the peak values of all previous cycles, except for the 2016-2017 period.

Back in July 2025, Blockware researcher Mitchell Askew predicted the end of “parabolic” rallies or “devastating” bear cycles, as institutions have altered market dynamics and reduced volatility.