- Several on-chain metrics signal positive trends.
- Whales have resumed accumulating digital gold, and miners are optimistic again.
- Bitcoin remains hostage to conditions in traditional financial markets.
A range of on-chain indicators points to a gradual shift in sentiment, the steadfastness of hodlers and “structural market strength,” shared his observations Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
“Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to shake investor confidence, but not so severe as to break the macro trend. The price appears to have formed a local bottom in the $76,000–$77,000 range; several reliable metrics are beginning to register local lows, pointing to further upside,” the researcher explained.
From anxiety to confidence
In particular, the NUPL metric shows a transition from the “Anxiety” zone to “Confidence” after a prolonged market correction.
Crosby called this a “critical shift in sentiment that has historically occurred at macro-level rising lows.”
The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) ratio accounts for spending of digital gold adjusted for coin age and transaction size, comparing it with the previous year’s average. This offers insight into the behaviour of long-term holders.
“Current readings have returned to low levels, indicating a lack of movement in large sums and old coins. This is a clear signal of confidence from the ‘smart money’. Such dynamics preceded powerful price rallies during the bull cycles of 2016/17 and 2020/21,” the expert explained.
Whales are accumulating again
The analyst also noted growth in the supply of coins held by long-term bitcoin investors.
“After taking profits at levels above $100,000, hodlers are returning to buying at lower levels. Historically, such accumulation phases created the conditions for supply shortages and subsequent parabolic price growth,” the specialist commented.
Are miners breathing easier?
The “Hash Ribbon” indicator also shows a bullish crossover — the short-term hashrate trend has risen above the long-term average.
According to Crosby, historically such a signal has coincided with local lows and trend reversals.
“Because miner behaviour often reflects their expectations for profitability, such a crossover indicates confidence in further price growth,” the expert explained.
“On the drip”
The researcher warned that despite optimistic on-chain signals, bitcoin “remains closely tied to liquidity macro-trends and equity markets.”
“Expectations of interest-rate cuts have supported the recovery in risk assets, however a sharp shift in conditions could again lead to market instability,” Crosby concluded.
At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $83,730. The gain over the past 24 hours is 0.5%, according to CoinGecko.
Earlier, the Bitcoin Macro Index metric indicated a bearish divergence, implying the likelihood of bitcoin entering a phase of price decline.