Bitcoin could face a 70% drop in the next bear phase, according to ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen.
History, he says, points to a potential correction. In previous cycles the price of digital gold declined by 94%, 87% and 77% from the peak.
“I would say that a 70% drop from whatever absolute top bitcoin reaches is possible. Does it have to happen? No, but the lessons of history suggest that such a probability should be considered,” — said Cowen.
Next ATH in two weeks?
The most recent all-time high for the leading cryptocurrency was recorded at $124,128 on August 14. At the time of writing, the asset trades around $116,900.
Researcher Axel Adler Jr put the odds of bitcoin reaching an ATH in the next two weeks at 70%. He pointed to balanced investor sentiment.
STH MVRV Z-Scores (155D & 365D) are hovering near zero — the market is neither overheated nor oversold, essentially balanced.
BTC price sits just above STH Realized Price, setting the stage for 1–2 weeks of consolidation with a potential push to ATH.
Uptober incoming 🌊 pic.twitter.com/hFaycSGxRy
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 18, 2025
According to the expert, the MVRV for short-term holders hovers around zero. At the same time, the cryptocurrency is trading above this cohort’s realized price. Such a setup implies one to two weeks of consolidation before a “new push to ATH”.
Derivatives also back the upside case. The analyst emphasised that bitcoin futures have been trading at a steady premium to spot. The seven-day basis exceeds the 30-day one — a structure typically associated with bullish trends.
“Base case (~70%) for the next two weeks: a stair-step uptrend or sideways movement. If in the next few days a cluster of green trend-confirmation signals appears, this will indicate an inflow of new long positions and increase the probability of reaching a new all-time high,” wrote Adler Jr.
A key resistance level
According to Glassnode, bitcoin’s heat map shows a concentration of supply around $117,000. Analysts called this level a key resistance zone.
A sustained break above that mark would signal further growth and potentially new highs, the experts noted. Otherwise, bitcoin faces prolonged consolidation or compression.
What could support the price?
Glassnode also pointed to positive inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs. They said this underscores institutional demand as a key factor supporting the market.
On September 18 the vehicles attracted $163m, bringing cumulative investments over four trading sessions to $664m. Last week total inflows exceeded $2.3bn — the highest since mid-July.
CryptoQuant analysts noted rising reserves on the Coinbase exchange in bitcoin and Ethereum. The figure reached $112bn for the first time in four years.
Coinbase Reserves Hit $112B in BTC, ETH & Stablecoins — Highest in 4 Years
“In past cycles, rising reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase have often coincided with higher market liquidity and bullish price momentum.” – By @CryptoOnchain pic.twitter.com/64VDXP51i5
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 19, 2025
“In past cycles, rising reserves on major exchanges like Coinbase have often coincided with higher market liquidity and bullish price momentum,” the experts stressed.
Earlier, macro analyst Luke Gromen explained bitcoin’s philosophy as digital gold. According to him, the cryptocurrency’s key advantage is the absence of yield.