The introduction of the digital ruble could lead to liquidity outflows from Russian banks. According to the Center for Macro-Economic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (ЦМАКП), up to 9 trillion rubles could flow from banks into the new asset by the end of 2024, writes «Ведомости».
Analysts at ЦМАКП believe that 5 trillion rubles could drain from citizens’ accounts, and another 4 trillion rubles—from corporate accounts.
Such figures are maximum and would be possible only if the digital ruble is rolled out quickly and there are no limits on the size of transfers to these assets.
Earlier at Sberbank said there could be an outflow to the central bank’s digital currency of 2 to 4 trillion rubles over several years.
The Center for Macro-Economic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (ЦМАКП) noted that to compensate for the outflow the regulator would have to provide banks with liquidity of up to 8.5 trillion rubles, and also cut the key rate by 0.25 percentage points.
If the Bank of Russia does not follow the path of the “compensating lending,” there is a risk that banks will not be able to continue their payment and settlement operations due to a lack of free funds, analysts say.
Earlier last year the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina acknowledged that the digital ruble could affect banks’ business models. At the same time she stated that the launch of the asset will not affect lending and deposit rates.
Analysts at Moody’s predicted a drain of bank capital due to the issuance of the digital ruble.
Experts at Skolkovo-HSE warned that the introduction of the new asset could threaten the Bank of Russia’s financial independence and increase pressure on commercial players.
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