Based on behavioural patterns, market structure and on-chain indicators, the bear market looks set to end. This is what Glassnode analysts say Glassnode.
Experts say that the current phase could take several more months to finish.
Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range for more than 120 days, not reacting to heightened volatility in traditional financial markets.
Experts noted the largest outflow of whale-held funds from exchanges since June 2022 (15,700 BTC). The behaviour of large players, as a rule, signals the direction of price trends, they added.
According to analysts, realized price in the context of whale-related exchange activity stands at $15,700. This is a psychologically important price level.
By the metric of the profit-bearing aggregate supply, the market has approached a cyclic low. Adjusted for addresses inactive for more than seven years (3.7 million BTC), this share stood at 39%. In 2019 and 2022, reversals occurred when the indicator stood at 32% and 37%, respectively.
NUPL indicator, adjusted for the ‘lost’ 3.7 million BTC, has fallen to -0.39. The metric breached the threshold of -0.25, which signals market undervaluation.
In the capitulation zone (below zero) NUPL has been in negative territory for 119 days. In previous bear phases this duration was 138 and 301 days (except for the pandemic shock in March 2020, which lasted 9 days).
The indicator for hodlers’ “in-profits” share (31%) crossed the 20% threshold about a month and a half ago. This points to a likely passage through the capitulation moment by long-term investors. Previously, a market turn required six to ten months for the metric to rebound below 20%, aligning with a cyclic reversal.
Back in October, after the U.S. jobs data release, bitcoin price plunged below $20,000.
Earlier, the former manager of the Cramer & Co. hedge fund and host of Mad Money on CNBC Jim Cramer said that tighter monetary policy would cause “washout” of speculative instruments such as digital assets.
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