Analysts see bitcoin at a decision point as ether readies a break

Bitcoin is at a “decision point”, and a break from the current range is crucial, according to analyst James Check.

In my view, it’s pretty important that Bitcoin clears this price zone in the near-term.

We’re sitting right in the middle of a decision point, and all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively. pic.twitter.com/1XLhMOO14K

— _Checkmate ??⚡☢️?️ (@_Checkmatey_) May 4, 2025

“We are sitting right at a decision point, and it will take just one big red or green candle to convince people of a lower high or, respectively, a bull continuation,” the expert explained.

According to Glassnode, 88% of bitcoin’s supply is “in profit” relative to last-spent prices. The reading signals a reset of investor expectations without broad capitulation.

88% of #Bitcoin supply remains in profit, with losses concentrated among buyers from the $95k–$100k range. This metric also rebounded from its long-term mean, indicating a broad reset of investor expectations without widespread capitulation. pic.twitter.com/fL2oDrP0BR

— glassnode (@glassnode) May 5, 2025

The MVRV ratio has retreated to its long-term mean of 1.74, a level historically associated with consolidation.

“This marks a cooling of unrealised gains, similar to position-closing in August 2024, and could act as support if the level holds,” the analytics firm noted.

At press time the “digital gold” trades around $94,000. After an attempt to test $98,000, the price pulled back to late-April levels.

A senior researcher at Glassnode, known as CryptoVizArt, noted that the rally to $93,000–96,000 pushed profit-taking volume above statistical norms.

The rally to $93k-$96k has pushed the profit-taking volume above the statistical levels. For every dollar realized in loss more than 9 dollars was realized in profit!
The fact that price is still above $93k is very surprising, which in my humble opinion is also risky. pic.twitter.com/w3zemwUc3J

— CryptoVizArt.₿ (@CryptoVizArt) May 5, 2025

“The fact that price is still above $93,000 is very surprising but, in my humble opinion, also risky,” he stressed.

Macro forces intrude

Bitcoin traders are awaiting news on US–China trade talks, LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told CoinDesk.

“Investors may be overly cautious toward risk assets such as cryptocurrencies given the current US macro climate, even as BTC decouples from US equities,” he said.

Over the weekend China’s commerce ministry said it is considering a US proposal to restart talks. President Donald Trump hinted that Beijing “wants to make a deal”.

“We remain optimistic that prices will make new highs over the long term as institutional adoption deepens via RWA issuance and integration with crypto platforms,” Ruck added.

Prediction-market traders on Polymarket remain skeptical (20% odds of an agreement between the world’s two largest economies), yet the yuan strengthened to a six-month high on the news.

Earlier, Glassnode urged bitcoin bulls to be cautious. Analysts said the price needs to hold above $91,000–93,000 given “weak” buy-side momentum.

In their view, the $93,000–95,000 area—aligned with short-term holders’ cost basis—is the decisive battleground for market direction.

“They represent a critical inflection point that must hold. Failure to stabilise above it would return price to the consolidation range and leave many investors with substantial unrealised losses,” Glassnode noted.

Ethereum’s Pectra hard fork is seen as a catalyst

On March 10, long-term ether accumulators “moved into unrealised-loss territory”, noted CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Carmelo Alemán Santana.

ETH Holders Refuse to Sell: Accumulating Addresses Lower Their Cost Basis

“On March 10 they held 15.5356M ETH, and by May 3 this rose to 19.0378M ETH, a 22.54% increase. Behavior reflects structural conviction & clear expectations of short-term appreciation.” – By @oro_crypto pic.twitter.com/yx12tC7N0O

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 5, 2025

By May 3, however, this cohort had increased its combined balance from ~15.5m ETH to ~19m ETH.

“The behaviour reflects structural conviction and clear expectations of short-term appreciation,” the expert believes.

Ethereum developers have scheduled activation of the Pectra hard fork for May 7. The upgrade includes a series of improvements aimed at boosting usability and efficiency. One notable change adds smart-contract functionality to wallets, simplifying their use and recovery.

Since the start of the year, ether has steadily lost ground against bitcoin. But ahead of the hard fork the Bollinger Bands indicator has narrowed sharply.

The metric signals impending volatility. The trend will largely depend on the direction of the breakout from the range, noted CoinDesk co-managing editor Omkar Godbole.

In his view, Pectra is the potential driver.

“L2 networks will benefit the most. By doubling BLOB capacity and making call data more expensive, Pectra cements binary arrays as the standard for posting rollup data. This strengthens Ethereum’s role as a data-availability layer and reinforces the scaling strategy,” Nansen analysts noted.

Earlier, Bernstein outlined the drivers that could take bitcoin to $1 million.