- Glassnode defines a fair-value range at $71,300–$91,900.
- CryptoQuant projects a drop to $63,000 if prices hold below $75,000.
A raft of on-chain metrics points to capitulation among bitcoin’s short-term market participants and, alongside signs of weakening demand, to the establishment of a distribution phase after the ATH. That is the conclusion of Glassnode.
A custom SOPR-adjusted CDD metric we developed for #Bitcoin shows that the intensity of the sell-off mirrors past capitulation events, notably the one in August 2024, as the market plunged to $49k.
Access the full analysis in the latest Week On-Chain https://t.co/sguxHqovn2 pic.twitter.com/JVYCNyVRRN— glassnode (@glassnode) March 11, 2025
The Accumulation Trend Score showed the accumulation phase ending in January 2025 after a sharp correction from $108,000 to $93,000. The indicator remains below 0.1 (the paler the yellow, the stronger the selling), indicating persistent bearish pressure.
A heat map of the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) metric revealed a pocket of strong demand at $95,000–$98,000. According to the analysts, market participants actively accumulated coins on pullbacks from mid-December to late February, firmly betting on a continuing bull run.
Since late February, as liquidity conditions tightened, uncertainty mounted alongside the Bybit hack and the ‘trade war’ with the US, pushing the price of digital gold below the key $92,000 level.
Specialists flagged a lack of meaningful “buy-the-dip” activity and a shift towards risk aversion.
The CBD heat map confirms waning bullish activity. Glassnode sees this setting up a longer consolidation or correction before the market finds a durable base of support.
Since prices slipped below $95,000, the 196-hour average STH-SOPR has stayed under 1, signalling panic selling at a loss by most short-term investors. At extremes the indicator fell to 0.97, underscoring the severity of the capitulation.
Such conditions often precede a local seller exhaustion. Long-term investors may watch this dynamic for potential entry points.
Analysts defined a fair-value band based on short-term holders’ purchase levels, bounded by $71,300 and $91,900. The range also contains a liquidity gap between $70,000 and $88,000.
Glassnode sees a high probability that a bottom forms within these limits, at least in the near term.
CryptoQuant’s view
CryptoQuant flags $75,000–$78,000 as support. The area coincides with the lower bound of realized price. A sustained move below this zone could make $63,000 the next target.
Dive into our weekly report for all the details ⤵️https://t.co/8tOammNnfw
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 11, 2025
They call the current 22% pullback from the ATH a routine feature of a bull market. But, unlike technical indicators, on-chain metrics signal a shift into bearish territory.
Analysts also note a slowdown in whale accumulation and that BTC-ETF holders have turned into net sellers.
Nansen described a potential correction to $70,000 as “an organic part of the current bull run”.
Former BitMEX chief Arthur Hayes shares that view. He believes the cryptocurrency is highly likely to drop to that level.
Earlier, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggested a prolonged consolidation in a wide range (for example, $75,000–$100,000), as observed at the start of 2024 before a return to growth.