Bitcoin is unlikely to return to the $77,000 level in the near future amid signals from the Fed about slowing quantitative tightening (QT). This was stated by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.
JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE.
Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 20, 2025
On March 19, the Fed left the key rate unchanged in the range of 4.25–4.5%. Starting in April, the central bank will slow down the sale of securities, reducing the monthly limit of treasury bonds from $25 billion to $5 billion.
Against this backdrop, Hayes considered that QT is “basically over.” This could ease pressure on liquidity and support risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
“The next thing we need for a real bullish play is either an exemption from the SLR or a restart of quantitative easing,” the expert wrote.
Bitcoin has risen by ~3% over the past day and is trading around $86,000. After the Fed meeting, the price momentarily approached $87,500.
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose to a neutral zone at 49.
Founder and CEO of ITC Crypto Benjamin Cowen disagreed with Hayes’ conclusion that QT is “basically over.” He noted that it is merely a slowdown in liquidity reduction from $60 billion to $40 billion per month.
QT is not “basically over” on April 1st. They still have $35B/mo coming off from mortgage backed securities. They just slowed QT from $60B/mo to $40B/mo
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) March 20, 2025
Chief crypto analyst at Real Vision Jamie Coutts expressed a view similar to Hayes. In his assessment, after the Fed meeting, “QT is basically dead,” albeit temporarily.
“Treasury bond volatility immediately retreated and now reflects the decline in the dollar index earlier this month. All of this is extremely positive for liquidity,” the expert added.
Sky Mavis co-founder Jeffrey Zirlin also stated that the slowdown in the Fed’s pace of securities asset reduction will positively impact cryptocurrencies and the stock market.
“Beginning in April, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion.”
Quantitative tightening (QT) will taper sharply, reducing Treasury securities runoff from… pic.twitter.com/hRvNEoAc9Y
— Jihoz.ron ? (@Jihoz_Axie) March 19, 2025
“The Fed has significant leeway to ease policy, providing more support to businesses and markets,” he added.
However, Hayes suggested that the central bank’s move away from QT could lead to further declines in stocks.
Earlier, QCP Capital questioned the sustainability of Bitcoin’s support at $80,000 in the current correction phase.
Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju speculated on the end of the cryptocurrency bull market.