Bitcoin and Ethereum pull back ahead of Fed chair’s speech

Bitcoin and ether fell as profit-taking met macro jitters.

The two largest cryptocurrencies by market value slipped as traders took profits after the recent rally and positioned for key macroeconomic events.

Over the past day, bitcoin fell 1.3% to $113,638, according to CoinGecko. It briefly touched $112,647. Ethereum slipped 1.4% to $4,179.

The crypto Fear & Greed index dropped to 44 — the lowest since 22 June.

Profit-taking and policy expectations

Kronos Research CIO Vincent Liu attributed the pressure to profit-taking and the unwinding of leveraged positions after setting a new all-time high earlier this month.

Traders, he said, have moved to the sidelines. The market may consolidate until there is clarity on monetary policy. He called $4,200 a key level for Ethereum: holding it could attract buyers, while a break risks a slide to $3,900.

Investors are focused on the minutes of the July meeting of the FOMC and a speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, in Jackson Hole — on 20 and 22 August, respectively.

“The most important event in the near term is the Fed chair’s speech,” said Peter Chang, head of research at Presto Research.

He added that the market is already pricing a rate cut in September. If the Fed chair’s remarks run counter to that, a sharp correction is likely. A more “dovish” tone could see the market extend gains. According to Chang, recent swings reflect investors positioning for an event with an uncertain outcome.

Other factors

Reports of a US Securities and Exchange Commission investigation added to the downward pressure.

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The regulator is examining the activities of Alt5 Sigma, which struck a $1.5 billion deal with World Liberty Financial. The latter is linked to US President Donald Trump.

Sentiment also soured after the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%, following an MIT NANDA study showing low effectiveness of pilot AI projects at 95% of surveyed companies.

Other drags include new 50% US import tariffs on 407 categories of goods containing aluminium and steel. Economists fear supply-chain disruptions and higher consumer prices. Against these risks, UBS raised its gold forecast to $3,700 by September 2026, expecting a weaker dollar and a slowing economy.

Amid the uncertainty, investors have stepped up hedging in derivatives. The 30-day bitcoin options delta skew reached 12% — a four-month high. Readings above 10% point to pronounced fear among market participants.

A “predictable pullback”

CryptoQuant analyst CQ Ben noted that bitcoin’s current softness mirrors patterns from past bull markets. A recovery and a return to growth are possible in late September to early October.

He pointed to data from the past two cycles, where notable weakness in the leading cryptocurrency began roughly 480 days after the halving.

According to this model, the current correction could last another 2–4 weeks. Recovery and a subsequent push to fresh highs have historically occurred by the 510th day after the reduction in miners’ rewards.

Ether under pressure

There are 905,767 ETH in the queue to exit staking, while demand stands at just 238,773 ETH. The waiting period is 15 days, after which the funds may reach the open market.

HashKey Capital partner Xu Han cited two main reasons for the unlocks:

• profit-taking — participants want to lock in gains while Ethereum trades near record highs;
• deleveraging — a recent rise in borrowing rates on Aave has made the strategy less attractive, forcing traders to close positions.

Ethereum developer Preston Van Loon noted that the exit-queue mechanism protects the network.

Ethereum’s validator exit queue has recently hit new highs! Validators wanting to exit Ethereum’s proof-of-stake consensus must wait over 15 days (approximately 870,000 ETH waiting) to exit.

Why does Ethereum have an exit queue?
👇🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/oO0VJQIMpi

— prestonvanloon.eth (@preston_vanloon) August 16, 2025

It prevents a mass validator exodus during a potential attack on consensus, preserving the network’s economic security at a critical moment.

On-chain indicators are adding to the pressure. Active addresses have fallen 28% from the 30 July peak — from 841,000 to 600,000. Network growth, which tracks new addresses, dropped by 28% over the same period to 138,000.

B2 Ventures founder Artur Azizov expects Ethereum to consolidate in a $3,900–$4,400 range for now. In his view, investors are awaiting clarity on Fed policy and the trajectory of tech stocks.

Despite a looming $4 billion unlock, Han believes the market can absorb the supply, citing “sustained inflows from institutional ETFs and digital-asset treasuries”.

Earlier, Presto Research analysts called bitcoin’s record rally an “inflationary illusion”.