Bitcoin is expected to “test investors’ resolve” with a sell-off following the halving, only to reach a new ATH in the fourth quarter. This forecast was presented by analysts at DecenTrader.
Experts attribute these expectations to the “classic behavior” of the leading cryptocurrency in the year when miners’ rewards are halved. They noted that the presented “roadmap” does not account for the impact of macroeconomic events and geopolitics.
According to the review, after the current broad sideways movement, approximately two months before the halving, which is expected to occur on April 18, a surge in buying followed by “selling on the news” should be anticipated.
“In other words, Bitcoin has about 30 days to go through a correction phase before demand for FOMO emerges. Keep in mind that digital gold tends to preemptively react to halving news,” the specialists wrote.
The review suggests that the correction could bring the price back to the lower boundary of the three-day supertrend near $37,000 over the next four to five weeks. The order book on Binance shows buying interest at the $35,500–38,500 level.
Experts estimate that before the halving, Bitcoin could rise to $49,000 on FOMO (a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the decline wave from the all-time high).
An alternative scenario suggests that the price of the leading cryptocurrency has already regained enough momentum to rise to $49,000. Supporting this scenario is the formation of a reversal pattern “inverse head and shoulders” with a target of $48,800 and net inflows into ETFs.
“After previous halvings, it took 220–240 days to break through to new record highs. A repeat of this trend is expected — the price will reach a new ATH in the mid-to-late fourth quarter of 2024. This will allow some time for correction,” the specialists indicated.
DecenTrader is confident in the improbability of returning to record highs before the halving.
“The dynamics will not differ from previous events. There is an uncannily accurate market cycle pattern for Bitcoin, born from investors’ emotions […]. It seems unreasonable to expect it to break positively now,” the specialists concluded.
Previously, technical analyst Ali illustrated the price patterns of the last two cycles of the leading cryptocurrency and suggested a further decline in the coin’s price. He did not rule out a drop to $32,700.
Earlier, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also stated that in the short term, Bitcoin could fall to $35,000 amid “excessive” inflation.