Bitcoin faces the risk of entering a price decline phase as the Bitcoin Macro Index, developed by Capriole Investments’ founder Charles Edwards, shows bearish divergence.
Not great. But… when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t be fighting it. https://t.co/PB2OPW1VnL
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) March 28, 2025
“Not great. But if Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t be against it,” the expert commented optimistically.
Created by Edwards in 2022, the index employs machine learning to analyze a multitude of indicators. According to its description, they “provide a clear view of Bitcoin’s relative value throughout historical cycles.” Price data and TA are not considered in the metric.
Since the end of 2023, the Bitcoin Macro Index has been showing increasingly lower extremes, while the price of the leading cryptocurrency reaches new highs. This is historically characteristic of bull markets but also indicates a long-term peak in the BTC/USD pair.
Analysts at CryptoQuant noted four alarming signals for digital gold:
- The Bitcoin IFP metric remains below the 90 SMA trend;
- Bitcoin CQ also remains in the bearish zone, indicating a possible deep correction;
- The MVRV indicator is below the 365 SMA line, signifying increased selling pressure;
- NUPL also cannot break above the 365 SMA.
“All these metrics indicate that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short and medium term. However, none of them suggest that the asset has reached an overheated or cyclical level. This is reminiscent of the carry trade crisis on August 5, 2024, which also led to a price drop due to macroeconomic conditions,” experts noted, referring to US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.
Earlier, Santiment recorded a decrease in Bitcoin volume on exchanges, indicating a reduction in selling pressure.