Bitcoin’s Divergence from Nasdaq and S&P 500 Observed by Researcher

The correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and stock indices Nasdaq and S&P 500 has significantly decreased, according to observations shared by CryptoQuant contributor known as oinonen_t.

“The correlation with the S&P 500 index, which reached 0.88 at the end of 2024, has decreased to 0.77. A similar trend is observed with the Nasdaq Composite — from 0.91 in January, the figure has dropped to 0.83,” the expert noted.

Digital Gold

The analyst also pointed out the growing correlation between Bitcoin and gold — since the beginning of the month, the coefficient has increased from -0.62 to the current -0.31. Both assets share the attribute of scarcity, although the former is a more limited resource.

“Furthermore, Bitcoin tends to follow gold with a certain time lag — of several months. If the current trend of ‘decoupling’ continues, gold may serve as a leading indicator for the leading cryptocurrency, all else being equal,” oinonen_t shared.

Bitcoin typically shows opposite dynamics relative to the dollar: when the US currency strengthens, digital gold depreciates, and vice versa.

“Recently, the USD has weakened somewhat,” the expert emphasized.

On-chain Factors

CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. noted a developing trend of decreasing the number of addresses depositing bitcoins to exchanges.

The number of addresses depositing bitcoins to exchanges has been steadily declining since 2022: the 30-day moving average has now dropped to 52K addresses compared to the 365-day level of 71K. Meanwhile, over the past 10 years, the most common distribution was around 92K… pic.twitter.com/sBAKWS9Jlb

— Axel ?? Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 24, 2025

“The trend itself is bullish — over the past three years, investors have reduced coin sales by four times. This signals a growth in HODL sentiment, which significantly reduces selling pressure and lays the groundwork for further growth,” he explained.

Analysts at Bitcoin Magazine Pro have recorded an increase in balances on “whale” addresses (from 1000 BTC). Over the past two months, large holders have increased their bitcoin reserves by more than $5 billion.

Since the beginning of March, Bitcoin whales have accumulated tens of thousands of BTC valued at over $5 BILLION! ?

The last time we saw such aggressive whale accumulation $BTC was below $40,000; just before we rallied over 80% in the following 2 months… ?

??? pic.twitter.com/t6HCricbHO

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) April 23, 2025

According to their observations, similarly aggressive accumulation was seen when the leading cryptocurrency was trading below $40,000. This was followed by an 80% increase in the asset over the next two months. 

Back in April, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju expressed doubt about the resumption of a bitcoin rally. In his view, it is too early to talk about the return of a bull run until a confident breakthrough of $100,000 occurs.