Bitcoin’s Path to $100,000: Analysts Highlight Conflicting Signals

Michaël van de Poppe, analyst and founder of MN Trading, noted the “growing potential” for the crypto asset market to rise amid falling rates and a weak US dollar.

Ultimately, macro environment is changing significantly.

— Gold comes down.
— Yields are falling.
— Pressure on the FED is increasing.
— Nasdaq goes up.
— CNH/USD goes up.

Momentum is building for #Crypto to succeed.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 1, 2025

Among other catalysts, he pointed to the rise of the Nasdaq and the fall in gold prices, as well as increased pressure on the FED.

In a comment to Bloomberg, Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, conversely suggested a decrease in the influence of macroeconomic factors on traders’ actions:

“Overall market sentiment has shifted towards momentum trading, fueled by spot demand as BTC breaks levels not seen since early February. Bitcoin continues to oscillate between correlations with gold and stocks, highlighting a more nuanced and dynamic relationship with macro factors, balanced by short-term momentum and spot demand.”

By the end of April, the 30-day linear correlation coefficient between the leading cryptocurrency and gold reached 0.54, approaching the annual high of 0.73.

Over the past 10 days, the crypto market capitalization closely correlated with the S&P 500, despite the effects of President Donald Trump’s “liberation tariffs”.

According to Nansen, April saw an outflow of stablecoins from exchanges. The total value of assets on trading platforms’ balances decreased from over $66 billion to $61.5 billion.

“Perhaps the risk season is cooling or simply shifting,” concluded Nansen.

Technical analyst Ali Martinez noted that among open BTC positions on Binance, shorts dominate — 63.76% of traders lean towards bearish sentiments.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $96,700. The total crypto market capitalization stands at $3.1 trillion.

On May 1, Bitcoin tested the $97,000 mark amid a frenzy of short-term investors — a sign that has historically preceded rallies.