Bitwise Predicts Shallower Bitcoin Corrections Due to Trump

Compared to previous cycles, the dynamics of digital gold are likely to be characterized by shorter and less severe pullbacks. This conclusion was reached by CIO of Bitwise, Matt Hougan, as reported by The Block.

“If we follow the historical pattern, 2025 will be an excellent year for cryptocurrencies. We predict that Bitcoin will double in value and exceed $200,000 due to demand for BTC-ETF and purchases of the asset by corporations and governments of individual countries. This is conservative,” the review states.

According to analyst Ali Martinez, shifts in the Bitcoin cycle typically occur when the price surpasses 200 DMA multiplied by a factor of 2.4. Currently, this key level stands at $184,600.

Cycle shifts for #Bitcoin $BTC typically happen when it surpasses 2.4x the 200-day SMA. That key level currently stands at $184,600! pic.twitter.com/kbLpJ5AQd4

— Ali (@ali_charts) January 30, 2025

Hougan urged monitoring risk dynamics amid increased leverage in the derivatives market and the use of additional capital to acquire coins.

Alongside President Donald Trump’s “stunningly bullish” decision to create a task force on digital asset markets, the expert now considers a disruption of the typical four-year bull run cycle possible.

“The launch of ETFs […] attracted hundreds of billions of dollars. […] The full integration of cryptocurrencies in Trump’s order, when banks start to store them, stablecoins are widely integrated into the global payment ecosystem, will lead to the establishment of positions by major institutions in digital assets and bring trillions,” stated the CIO of Bitwise.

According to the expert, four-year cycles are linked not to Bitcoin halving, but to market psychology and speculation. He noted that the dynamics mirror traditional economic booms and busts, intensified by catalysts such as the launch of exchanges in 2011, the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014, and the SEC’s crackdown on ICO rounds in 2018.

According to Hougan, the current “mainstream cycle” emerged after the collapse of FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius in 2022 and was reinforced on March 10, 2023, following developments at Grayscale in its court case against the regulator, which signaled approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The expert noted that the main obstacle is time: the impact of Trump’s initiatives will take years, not months. Therefore, the “crypto winter” expected in 2026 is unlikely to occur.

“If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is waiting for Bitcoin at $700,000, will we really see a 70% pullback? At the moment, everything is in full swing. The crypto train is leaving the station,” concluded Hougan.

As reported, TradFi investors are only beginning to explore digital assets, according to Bernstein.

Earlier, Standard Chartered urged buying Bitcoin, taking advantage of a drop due to the DeepSeek factor. Prior to this, analysts predicted the first cryptocurrency’s price would rise to $200,000 by the end of the year.