Investment bank Citigroup has revised its annual Bitcoin price forecast for this year from $143,000 to $112,000. The target level for Ethereum has been adjusted from $4304 to $3175.
This was reported by CoinDesk citing a report from the financial institution.
The document’s author, Alex Saunders, attributed the revision to three factors: a slowdown in the development of a regulatory framework in the US, a decrease in on-chain activity, and lowered expectations for capital inflows into exchange-traded funds.
The bank reduced its forecast for annual demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs to $10 billion, and for Ethereum-based funds to $2.5 billion. Despite the adjustment, Saunders described inflows into such instruments as the main factor for potential market growth.
The expert assessed the likelihood of relevant legislation being passed in the US this year at 60%.
Citigroup also presented alternative scenarios:
- Bullish scenario: Amid widespread ETF adoption, Bitcoin could rise to $165,000, and Ethereum to $4488;
- Bearish: In the event of a macroeconomic recession, the first cryptocurrency risks falling to $58,000, and Ether to $1198.
For Ethereum, Saunders noted additional risks due to weak network activity. The coin could be supported by the growth of the stablecoin market and the development of the tokenization of real assets sector.
Resistance in the $75,000-$85,000 Range
The head of research at CryptoQuant, Julio Moreno, stated that Bitcoin may face resistance at the $75,000 and $85,000 levels, despite traders’ positive expectations ahead of the Fed meeting.
In the perpetual futures market, long positions prevail, indicating investors’ belief in continued growth. Moreno noted that if the rally continues, the first hurdle will arise at the $75,000 mark. This level corresponds to the lower boundary of traders’ realized price, which historically acts as resistance in bear markets.
The next barrier is around $85,000. Previously, this level held back the price in mid-January and October.
Moreno observed a shift in sentiment: a rise in quotes above $70,000 led to the liquidation of shorts and stimulated the opening of new longs.
Buyer dominance is also confirmed by funding rates. Since March 15, funding for Bitcoin has shifted from “extremely negative” values to positive, meaning traders are willing to pay extra to hold longs. A similar situation is observed in Ethereum.
Despite the optimism, the analyst warned of risks. The price increase has triggered an influx of Bitcoins to exchanges. On March 16, the hourly volume of deposits on trading platforms reached 6100 BTC — the highest since February 20. Moreover, 63% of the total volume consisted of large transfers. Such a surge could create selling pressure and slow down the rise in quotes.
Ethereum’s Uptrend
A steady inflow of liquidity into the Ethereum derivatives market indicates the stability of the current uptrend, rather than a temporary rebound. This conclusion was reached by a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym Arab Chain.
Open Interest Supports the Stability of Ethereum’s Uptrend
“This trend in open interest indicates sustained liquidity inflows into the derivatives market, supporting the stability of Ethereum’s uptrend rather than indicating a temporary move.” – By @ArabxChain pic.twitter.com/aLYNY0jTH8
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 18, 2026
The expert examined the 30-day change in open interest and noted a shift in trader behavior. The figures vary significantly depending on the trading platform:
- Bybit: A jump of 2.51 million ETH was recorded, indicating a redistribution of liquidity;
- Binance: Open interest increased by 11,400 ETH, confirming continued interest in the asset;
- Bitfinex and Kraken: An outflow is observed — figures decreased by 35,700 ETH and 4,300 ETH respectively;
- Gate: Activity remains minimal.
According to the analyst, such divergence indicates market participants’ caution. Traders are revising strategies: some are closing positions to reduce risks, while others are increasing activity on major platforms.
Arab Chain concluded that the high level of open interest confirms investors’ confidence and willingness to hold positions. This fundamentally supports Ethereum’s bullish momentum.
Back on March 17, a specialist under the pseudonym Darkfost recorded the return of Bitcoin buyers to major exchanges.