CoinGecko flags Uptober effect for the crypto market

In eight of the past ten years, the cryptocurrency market in October has risen relative to the previous month. On average, the ‘Uptober’ effect on total market capitalization of digital assets stands at 14%, according to CoinGecko experts.

Is Uptober a genuine trend or simply a meme?

Our recent study shows that in 8 of the past 10 years, the global crypto market rallied in October compared to the previous month.

Read the full study: https://t.co/a1ouZh70Yw pic.twitter.com/8H9ZxMTtGx

— CoinGecko (@coingecko) October 30, 2023

On a monthly basis, October gains ranged from 7.3% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2021.

The exceptions were 2014 and 2018, when the market fell over the month by 12.7% and 8.3%, respectively.

Uptober — Reality?

Experts say Uptober is a reality, not merely a meme on the Internet. The term, now well established, is formed from two English words: ‘up’ and ‘October’.

\”It seems that all signs point to the Uptober effect, which is typically observed monthly, with the cryptocurrency market rising on the back of high Bitcoin prices,\” the researchers said.

Throughout the month, the price of the leading cryptocurrency surpassed $30,000, and in the final days tested the level of $35,000. A more substantial rally was demonstrated by a number of altcoins such as Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK).

In the long run, not all is rosy

In year-on-year terms, the Uptober phenomenon is not as productive as at the start of the year — growth was observed in only six of ten years. The range of positive figures runs from 8.9% to 879.6%.

On the other hand, October declines in the cryptocurrency market ranged from 5.8% to 67%.

\”This suggests that investors may be better off using the Uptober effect in short-term monthly trading rather than the riskier wide range of potential outcomes for long-term investments,\” the experts suggested.

In 2023, as of October 30, the growth of market capitalization relative to the previous month stood at 18.1%. Compared with the start of the year, the metric rose 58.9% and surpassed $1.3 trillion after two quarters of weak momentum.

Short horizons also warrant caution

In six of the eight years when Uptober fired, the October uptrend was not sustained. For example, in 2022, market capitalization fell for 21 days out of 31 and recovered only in the last week. In the current month, a small decline was also observed from the 10th to the 16th.

Exceptions were 2015 and 2021, when the market rose daily throughout October.

One commenter on X suggested a new name for the October phenomenon — Pumptober, which already hints at a ‘pump’ of crypto assets.

The effects of surrounding months also have their own names. September is historically linked with Rectember, and November with Downvember.

After a little bit of Uptober, comes Downvember and Rectember, then soon it will be time to slurp it up real good

— IfOnlyUpOnly (@MrObergeil) October 4, 2022

However, September 2023 did not support the attributed trend — by month-end the leading cryptocurrency rose 3.9%. Over the past decade, this was the third exception to the historical trend.

Analysts at Matrixport warned that by December 2024 Bitcoin prices will rise to $125,000.