CryptoQuant analyst forecasts bitcoin’s cycle peak in August

Bitcoin may reach this cycle’s peak in late August. This conclusion was reached by CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent after analysing the MVRV metric.

In the expert’s view, the market is echoing 2021. Back then, the 365 DMA formed a double top six months before the bear trend began. The second peak marked the turning point.

Applying the same six-month interval to the current cycle implies the next peak could form on September 10, 2025.

Yonsei_dent stressed that MVRV is a lagging indicator. The actual price top for bitcoin could arrive earlier — likely in late August.

The forecast aligns with broader market expectations, he added, including a possible rate cut by the Fed and shifting macro sentiment.

He advised investors to pair optimism with caution, tighten risk management and remain flexible.

Market conditions

On July 27 the price of bitcoin rose above $119,000. It continued to recover after dropping to two-week lows around $114,500.

The advance was helped by news of another delay to tariff measures between the United States and China. For 90 days the two sides are expected not to impose new tariffs and to refrain from other steps that could escalate the trade war.

At the time of writing bitcoin trades at $118,889. According to CoinGecko, it is down 0.2% on the week, while the monthly gain is 10.6%.

Investor Ted Pillows believes a strong move requires a break above $119,500.

$BTC needs to break above $119.5K for a big move.

If that doesn’t happen, this consolidation will continue.

I think BTC could break above this level next month which will start the next leg up. pic.twitter.com/Roj7lwYri4

— Ted (@TedPillows) July 27, 2025

He expects that to happen next month, starting the next leg higher.

The analyst known as Rekt Capital noted a daily close above a key range.

#BTC

Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the blue Range Low, kickstarting a break back into the very briefly lost Range

Any dips into the Range Low (confluent with the new Higher Low) would be a retest attempt to confirm the reclaim$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/65vWRJGSUt pic.twitter.com/wgavHZXhLa

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 27, 2025

He sees this as a signal to rebuild positions. Any dip towards $120,000 would be a retest confirming the level’s strength.

The analyst known as CrypNuevo pointed to a target range of $114,500–113,600 where exchange liquidity is concentrated. He called this cluster “a natural medium-term target”.

Volatility outlook and liquidation levels

According to Coinglass, the “maximum pain” for sellers is at $119,020. A return to all-time highs around $123,000 would trigger liquidations of short positions worth more than $1.1 billion.

Analysts at Coinank agree that strong resistance has formed around $119,000–120,000 because of dense liquidation clusters.

The trader known as TheKingfisher warned of a potential rise in volatility in the near term.

Seeing predominantly red on the BTC GEX+ chart. This indicates dealers are heavily short gamma, suggesting they may amplify volatility to hedge their positions. Expect potentially larger price swings in the near term. Monitor these shifts closely.

Explore more data-driven… pic.twitter.com/5tLlcDzMck

— TheKingfisher (@kingfisher_btc) July 27, 2025

He said dealers are short gamma, which could prompt them to amplify price swings to hedge.

Earlier, TD Cowen specialists forecast bitcoin rising to $155,000 by the end of the year under an optimistic scenario.