CryptoQuant CEO Identifies Bitcoin Price for Bear Market Onset

The bullish phase of bitcoin will continue even if the price falls by 30% from its peak — to around $77,000. This was stated by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, citing historical data.

I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year.

We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.

I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in past cycles.

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025

“I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year. We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad,” the expert noted.

He highlighted data on the realized price of the first cryptocurrency by categories. The metric considers the average cost of the asset in all past transactions.

The entry point values are:

• for custodial wallets of spot ETFs or “new whales” — ~$89,000;
• for trader deposits on Binance — ~$59,000;
• for balances of large miners — ~$57,000.

The breach of the breakeven level for the latter category has historically confirmed the transition to a bull market. This occurred in November 2018, March 2020, and May 2022, emphasized the head of CryptoQuant.

Macroeconomics, Halving, and Other Factors

Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin has traded in the range of $90,000-110,000. At the time of writing, quotes are near ~$96,300.

In late January, analyst Ali Martinez identified the price of $97,877 as a key support level for maintaining bullish momentum.

In February, experts identified three factors that could cause bitcoin to fall from its current range. These include: tightening fiat liquidity, the Trump administration’s delay in creating a national BTC reserve, and technical analysis data.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggested a pullback of the cryptocurrency to $70,000-75,000. He cited disappointment in Trump’s policies as a potential driver of price movement.

Key developer of the Hadron Founders Club project and venture investor known as chainyoda generally agreed with Ki Young Ju’s opinion.

Makes sense. We are in the fourth year of the four year cycle with stocks at ATH. 30% drawdown is possible. Question is how likely a 70% drawdown is if stocks correct 20%. Not likely but only a sharp stocks crash can flip ETF and corporate flows that hard

— chainyoda (@chainyoda) February 19, 2025

However, he noted that the stock market is in the final year of a four-year cycle with stocks reaching ATH. A 30% drop is possible.

“The question is how likely a 70% bitcoin drawdown is if stocks correct even by 20%. Unlikely, but a stock market crash could significantly reverse corporate flows into ETFs,” he wrote.

CryptoQuant author and on-chain analyst Timo Oinonen concluded that the first cryptocurrency has not yet exhausted its growth potential in the post-halving cycle. After the block reward was halved on April 20, 2024, the asset’s price increased by only 63%, he emphasized.

Comparing Post-Halving Performance

“Despite the continuing halving cycle, I’d expect to see a ‘sell in May’ effect, a sideways summer, and elevated price levels by the last quarter.” – By @oinonen_t

Read more ?https://t.co/bvZ8eJTKNE pic.twitter.com/FurLSqddys

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 17, 2025

Referring to historical data, he noted:

“I expect to see a sell-off in May, a sideways summer, and price growth by the last quarter. Positive seasonality in Q4 repeated in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. A deeper correction is possible in a few months or even a year.”

As reported in CryptoQuant, there is a risk of bitcoin entering a bearish phase due to declining investor risk appetite.