Delphi Digital cofounder forecasts new Bitcoin ATH after the halving

Delphi Digital cofounder and head of research Kevin Kelly увидел early signs of a bullish rally in the current market for digital assets.

According to Kelly, the standard crypto cycle begins when Bitcoin reaches an all-time high (ATH), followed by an 80% drawdown.

Approximately two years later it recovers to its previous ATH and continues to rise to a new one. The sequence lasts about four years.

Kelly says the pattern is not a matter of chance, but aligns with a “broader business cycle.” He noted that Bitcoin’s price peak often coincides with the ISM manufacturing index.

According to the Delphi cofounder’s analysis, ISM is already in the late stage of a downtrend. The situation reminds him of the 2015-2017 market.

Kelly noted that the last two halving events in the Bitcoin network occurred about 18 months after the asset hit bottom, and seven months before it broke its all-time high.

The next block reward halving is expected in April 2024. The expert believes that about six months later, digital gold could reach an ATH.

According to PlanB blogger poll, 60% of respondents believe a bull market will begin after the halving.

Despite the optimistic forecast, Kelly warned that there are no guarantees that such a scenario will unfold. He also suggested the possibility of a “false bottom”.

“In reality, this is the time when we could see another modest sell-off or a period of price consolidation, especially after the strong rally we’ve seen over the past nine months (similar to the second half of 2019),” he noted.

Analysts at Glassnode noted a stage of extreme market apathy in the Bitcoin market. In support of their words, they pointed to the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands spread to 2.9%.

Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility, annualized, has fallen to 15.5% — a record low.