Expert Links Bull Market Continuation to US Bitcoin Reserve Prospects

The inflow of new capital into cryptocurrencies is expected to resume once the prospects for the US Bitcoin Reserve become clearer. This forecast was made by Shen Yu, co-founder of custodian Cobo and mining pool F2Pool.

One of the largest miners in China, co-founder of Cobo and f2pool @bitfish1 predicted that the market may pick up in June-October this year. If the US National Bitcoin Reserve is not passed, the bull market may be over, but at this moment, the probability of passing is still…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 25, 2025

He expects this could occur in the second half of the year, approximately from July to October.

“The key is whether the result with the US national reserve will happen this year. If not, the bull market may have ended, but the probability of its continuation is still relatively high at the moment,” concluded the entrepreneur.

On February 25, the price of Bitcoin fell below $90,000. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $89,000. The total market capitalization has decreased by nearly 9% to $3.02 trillion (CoinGecko).

According to IntoTheBlock, at current prices, only about 12% of Bitcoin addresses are in an “unrealized” loss. However, this is a record high since October 2024. 

Bitcoin once fell below $89,000. According to IntoTheBlock, as the price of Bitcoin fell below $90,000, about 12% of Bitcoin addresses are currently in an unrealized loss state, a record high since October 2024.

— Wu Blockchain 

(@WuBlockchain) February 25, 2025

Experts at CryptoQuant noted that large investors are buying during the price dip. 

“26,430 BTC just flowed into whale accumulation addresses—often linked to OTC deals and long-term custody,” the analysts noted.

Whales are buying.

26,430 BTC just flowed into whale accumulation addresses—often linked to OTC deals and long-term custody. pic.twitter.com/NkcGWdnAmx

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 25, 2025

US Bitcoin Reserve Prospects Remain Unclear

The community expected that the decision to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) would be among the first actions taken by US President Donald Trump upon his return to the White House on January 20. This was one of the politician’s campaign promises. 

The head of state established a task force on digital asset markets led by “crypto czar” David Sacks. Sacks called the assessment of the initiative a priority, but provided no details. Some experts described the administration’s cautious approach to the crypto reserve as a factor that could “push” Bitcoin below $90,000.

“Evaluating or studying is what Washington does when it doesn’t intend to resolve an issue,” commented Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research, on market concerns.

In December 2024, Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter promised to organize an “SBR wave” at the state level if the central authorities do not expedite the initiative. 

In January, the largest public American miner MARA Holdings joined the lobbying for the implementation of Bitcoin reserves in the regions. Relevant bills were introduced in many states, including Utah, South Dakota, Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Utah, Texas, and several others.

However, according to Bitcoin Laws, while Utah maintains leadership in decision-making on creating the SBR, in Montana, Pennsylvania, North and South Dakota, and Wyoming, legislative initiatives have failed.  

According to Bitcoin Laws, among the US states, Utah’s HB230 bill is leading in the Bitcoin reserve race, while Montana (MT), North Dakota (ND), Pennsylvania (PA), South Dakota (SD) and Wyoming (WY) have failed to pass or have failed in related digital asset bills.…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 24, 2025

In the US Senate, Wyoming is represented by Cynthia Lummis, a well-known Bitcoin advocate. The senator prepared a bill that would allow for the creation of an SBR at the federal level.

The community noted that if such an initiative was rejected in the “most Bitcoin-friendly” state, it is “certainly not going to be supported” in Congress.

A “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” is dead in Wyoming, the most Bitcoin-friendly state in America.

Yet Cynthia Lummis claims her federal bill with zero co-sponsors will pass Congress with hundreds of votes. If Wyoming won’t support it, D.C. certainly won’t.

Then why keep on? ??? pic.twitter.com/kOnr5xbuzT

— Justin Bechler (@1914ad) February 18, 2025

Back in December, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes did not rule out a Bitcoin retreat to the $70,000-75,000 range due to disappointment with Trump’s policy.