The introduction of the digital ruble threatens the central bank’s financial independence and increased pressure on commercial players. Analysts at the Skolkovo-RESH financial centre reached these conclusions; writes RBC.
In their study “Central Bank Digital Currencies: Typology, Design and Russian Specificity,” the experts pointed to risks of direct involvement by the central bank in the financial-services market. Among their concerns are the regulator losing its role as an independent market participant and the erosion of trust in its regulatory function.
“This is the most pressing risk for Russia. Central Bank officials stressed that they do not intend to create a direct competitor to banks, but if a different decision is made, there could be an outflow of funds from banks,” commented Egor Krivosheya, head of research at Skolkovo-RESH.
If the target audience for the digital ruble is satisfied with existing market offerings, the creation of a digital currency would be an inefficient allocation of resources. There is also a risk that a portion of the population will encounter difficulties in using it.
“If this instrument from the Bank of Russia is not in high demand, regulatory expenses may not be fully recouped,” explained Krivosheya.
As the issuer of the digital ruble, the Bank of Russia could become a competitor to other providers of financial services in the market.
“If the market is saturated, creating a digital currency may only stifle the innovative development of the industry, exerting unnecessary pressure on commercial players,” the authors of the study noted.
The report’s authors believe that, given the wide range of solutions from commercial participants in the market, the digital currency is likely to remain a niche product, especially if offered as a voluntary initiative for users.
Current demand for the digital ruble at Skolkovo-RESH was rated at two out of ten. If clear value propositions and a target audience are identified, experts raised this score to six out of ten.
The concept of the new asset was rated five out of ten: it will not become an alternative to existing financial services, but may complement them. The transition of the solution to the stage of “radical innovation” received seven to eight out of ten.
The most promising scenario, the experts said, is one in which the digital ruble, for example, would provide “access to a new breakthrough infrastructure”.
As reported in October 2020, the Bank of Russia allowed the possibility of creating a digital ruble in October 2020.
Testing of the asset could begin as early as the end of 2021.
According to professor Oleg Shibanov of the Russian School of Economics, the security of the digital ruble will be guaranteed by commitments from the Bank of Russia.
For more on the project, read in the special material:
Accessibility and traceability: how the Bank of Russia sees the digital ruble
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