Experts: China could win the AI race by 2030

By 2030, China will overtake the United States and its allies in global technological leadership, according to experts from the Special Competitive Studies Project at the National Security Commission on AI.

The mid-decade Challenges to National Competitiveness report argues that microelectronics, artificial intelligence and 5G will determine national power by the end of the decade.

According to the document, the United States is wholly dependent on China for semiconductors. If the PRC seizes chip factories and cuts off raw-material supplies, “the American armed forces will be paralyzed, and the nation will sink into a depression,” the analysts say.

Chinese firms lead the development and deployment of 5G, giving Beijing the ability to control network equipment worldwide.

AI matters because Chinese authorities have tied the technology to national security. Washington has a similar plan, but lags the main rival by four years, the experts say.

“The United States cannot continue to fall behind critically important technologies, tackle problems piece by piece, or lag in tying their impact to the future of geopolitics and democracy … the consequences are too obvious to ignore,” the report says.

Analysts say the United States is not equipped to catch up. Officials allowed the manufacturing base to shrink and failed to consider or develop effective governance of technologies.

Analysts blamed tech giants and venture capitalists for part of this.

“The technological ecosystem developed without regard to geopolitical rivalry and with relative indifference to the strategic consequences of developments,” the report says.

According to the authors, venture-capital firms focused on making money rather than long-term efforts to build national power. The government likewise failed to mobilize industry toward national goals.

Analysts are confident that the United States can still regain strengths and outpace the next wave of technologies. To do so, it must master a new geometry of American innovation and use it to realise national advantage.

“We cannot rest on the laurels of a strong technological ecosystem, a vibrant private sector, or lofty ideals to adapt naturally,” the report says.

The authors propose that the United States urgently rethink its innovation policy and practice. The country must ensure collaboration between private and public sectors and revive domestic manufacturing, they say.

The authorities should also establish a national AI governance body that would enable the use of the technology for good, reform military strategy and work with allies to counter China’s efforts.

The report also envisions a future in which the PRC leads global technological primacy. In the experts’ view, when this happens, more and more countries will “fall into Beijing’s orbit” and imitate its authoritarian regime.

China will also be able to achieve military superiority, dominate the information space and payment systems.

The Special Competitive Studies Project was established in 2021 to assess global threats. The project is led by former Google chief Eric Schmidt.

In July, the U.S. Congress passed a law to stimulate chip production. According to the authors, the initiative will reduce the United States’ dependence on foreign suppliers, lower electronics prices and create thousands of new jobs.

In October 2021, former Pentagon software chief Nicholas Chaillan stated that China has already won the AI race against the United States.

In July, Eric Schmidt said that China is catching up with the United States in AI and quantum computing faster than previously thought.

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