Experts forecast Bitcoin to reach $45,000 by May 20

In the case of a repetition of the bear-market pattern from 2018-2019 in terms of duration and trajectory, Bitcoin will reach the $45,000 mark by May 20. This forecast was issued by K33 analysts (formerly Arcane Research).

A reliable pattern or an illusory correlation?

BTC’s current drawdown and recovery cycle is remarkably similar to the pattern seen in the 2018-19 bear market in terms of length and trajectory.

If history repeats, BTC will peak around May 20 at $45,000. pic.twitter.com/JW4EaiMTOk

— K33 Research (@K33Research) April 17, 2023

Analysts noted the current “astonishing similarity” of drawdowns and recoveries with those seen three to four years ago. Then and now, hodlers endured the crash and are not rushing to sell Bitcoin at a 60% loss (from ATH).

The sharp rise in prices bears all the hallmarks of a “hated rally.” By this term, specialists mean the sense of underexposure in long positions among long-term investors after a highly traumatic year, during which they had to sell due to fear of worsening momentum.

In 2019-2020, the drawdown stood at 84% versus 78% in 2022. The downturn periods in both cycles lasted about 370 days. And the rebound from the peak to the trough after 510 days reached 60%.

The bear-market rally peaked 556 days after the formation of the the 2017 high with a drawdown of 34% from ATH at that time.

“History is unlikely to repeat itself in quite the same way. However, if the fractal continues, Bitcoin would peak around May 20 at $45,000,” — the analysts forecast.

Ethereum’s rise, according to K33 analyst Vetle Lunde, was driven by a surge in speculative demand from institutions. In his assessment, over the last week open interest in derivatives based on the second-largest cryptocurrency on the CME rose by 43%.

$ETH is holding above $2,000 after it reached an 11-month high on Sunday.@K33Research‘s @VetleLunde points to insights that show signs of institutional interest in ether derivatives.

Watch more markets analysis: https://t.co/P5ZzElUKs7 pic.twitter.com/FDLOLXbjKL

— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) April 17, 2023

In April, the founder of the Ballet app and former CEO of the BTC exchange, Bobby Lee, said of “the coming of spring” for Bitcoin .

Earlier, Glassnode analysts noted the end of the bear phase of the market for the leading cryptocurrency.