Following an analysis of applications for launching spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bloomberg analysts noted a high probability of positive decisions “across the board.” Priority is given to products based on Litecoin, Dogecoin, Solana, and XRP.
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We’re putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
Here’s the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already accepted forms 19b-4 for LTC and DOGE for consideration.
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart are confident in classifying Litecoin as a “commodity” rather than a “security.” Dogecoin may receive the same status.
The final deadline for reviewing applications will be in October. The probability of a positive outcome ranges from 65% to 90%.
The analysts did not assess the chances of approval for proposals based on Hedera Hashgraph and Polkadot.
Experts highlighted the following prerequisites:
- Applications for XRP and Dogecoin will be considered this week.
- The SEC’s digital assets task force, led by Hester Peirce, will “untangle” some issues regarding token status in court cases against industry representatives by the end of 2025.
Balchunas and Seyffart are convinced that in the event of Donald Trump’s defeat in the U.S. presidential election, progress on crypto-ETFs would be negligible, except for the LTC-ETF.
The specialists explained that the approval of an exchange-traded fund based on XRP will only be possible after resolving the current disputes between the SEC and Ripple, but this “will happen in one form or another.”
ADA-ETF
On February 11, NYSE Arca filed an application using form 19b-4 to convert the Grayscale Cardano Trust into an ETF.
Coinbase Custody Trust Company will act as custodian, and BNY Mellon Asset Servicing as administrator.
Earlier, Tuttle Capital Management submitted a proposal to the SEC to register ten 2x leveraged crypto-ETFs, including those based on TRUMP and MELANIA. Other products are based on Bonk, BNP, and Chainlink.
In January, CBOE on behalf of ARK Invest and 21Shares filed an application to amend the structure of the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF to allow for in-kind asset redemption.
Previously, Nasdaq submitted a similar proposal regarding rule adjustments for BTC-ETF.