Despite the leading cryptocurrency holding above the demand zone of $76,000-$80,000, several on-chain metrics suggest this is a “hope rally” within a downtrend rather than a reversal, according to Glassnode.
Analysts note that since late February, the cryptocurrency has been trading within this range. Each sell-off towards the lows has been met with a swift recovery, indicating strong demand.
Such episodes have been accompanied by the realized profit ratio falling below 1, indicating losses outweighing positive financial results. This imbalance is a sign of bear exhaustion, experts pointed out.
Analysts found no signs of renewed and sustained strength, reflecting a market still experiencing emotional and financial “hangover” after the ATH around $109,000.
In a logarithmic scale, the indicator (90 DMA) showed short-term spikes and did not break the broader downtrend. This does not provide sufficient grounds to suggest a structural shift in favor of the bulls, experts emphasized.
Glassnode stated that with signs of weakening momentum and reduced profitability, the current structure meets almost all the characteristics of a typical bear market phase.
According to analysts’ calculations, as of March 30, 4.7 million BTC were below the purchase price, which is less than the extreme values of mid-2021 during the previous downtrend.
This scenario may indicate a lack of bull capitulation, which often lays the foundation for a new bull run.
Similar conclusions were drawn by experts based on the share of digital gold’s capitalization in loss according to the MVRV indicator. The metric rose to 2%, which is significantly lower than the figures of previous bear markets.
On average, investors acquired these coins at $96,700, implying a “paper” loss of 12%. This is one of the lowest levels of this MVRV in the current cycle, although it has not reached the deep lows observed in the past.
Earlier, CryptoQuant noted alarming signals for Bitcoin across four indicators. One of the verified authors confirmed that MVRV does not yet indicate a bottom in the quotes.
Nansen stated that the cryptocurrency market may reach a medium-term low in the next two months amid global uncertainty regarding ongoing trade tariff negotiations.
Back in the night of November 3, Bitcoin fell below $85,000 following the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump of new tariffs for trading partners.