Historical price cycles indicate that a new Bitcoin bull market may not arrive before the end of 2024 or the start of 2025. This view was expressed in an interview with CNBC CNBC by Huobi co-founder Du Jun.
According to him, Bitcoin’s price cycles are closely linked to halvings — the programmed, periodic halvings of block rewards by half, which occur roughly every four years.
The last halving took place in May 2020, and the following year the price of the leading cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $68,000. A similar price move was observed after 2016. Bitcoin hit record highs in December 2017, Du noted.
In both cases, the price of digital gold subsequently fell sharply. At the time of writing, the flagship was trading at below $40,000 — the price had fallen roughly 42% from its peak.
“If this cycle continues, we are at the early stages of a bear market,” said Du.
Based on the trend, he expects Bitcoin’s bullish trend only after the next halving in 2024.
“In reality, it is hard to predict exactly, as there are many other factors that could affect the market, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the recent COVID,” he added.
In January, Glassnode analysts, based on on-chain metrics for Bitcoin, noted the onset of a bear market for the price of the leading cryptocurrency.