Is the Worst Yet to Come? Analysts Warn of Bitcoin’s Lack of ‘Final Capitulation’

Bitcoin's valuation lags behind network activity; price bottom search ongoing.

The market valuation of the leading cryptocurrency lags behind its actual network activity, and the search for a price bottom is not yet complete. This conclusion was reached by experts from the Checkonchain platform and analyst MorenoDV.

According to the researchers, 38% of the digital gold supply is at an unrealized loss. The scale of losses is comparable to mid-2021 levels.

Bitcoin is currently hammering out a bottom, but the process is far from over.

— 38% of supply currently underwater
— On-chain losses similar to mid-2021 “bull killer” levels
— $81k marks the average ETF inflow cost basis & True Market Mean
— True capitulation event still… pic.twitter.com/ml2aI1gxrJ

— _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) December 19, 2025

Experts identified $81,000 as a significant level. It corresponds to the average purchase price for spot Bitcoin ETFs and the True Market Mean. Analysts emphasized that a final capitulation of investors in the market has not yet been observed.

MorenoDV highlighted the NVT Golden Cross indicator, which assesses network value relative to transaction volume. This is akin to the classic P/E ratio, where company earnings are replaced by economic activity on the blockchain.

Bitcoin’s Valuation Reset Is Happening Again

“The present setup points to a market transitioning from deep undervaluation toward equilibrium, a phase historically associated with accumulation.” – By @MorenoDV_

Read More ⤵️https://t.co/2o9AUUKN2k pic.twitter.com/kPGrGnak4E

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 19, 2025

Previously, the indicator fell to -0.58. This level indicated not so much market participant pessimism as a fundamental undervaluation of the asset. Currently, the value has risen to -0.32.

According to the analyst, prices are gradually aligning with metrics, but Bitcoin is still trading at a discount. The market is moving from deep oversold conditions towards equilibrium—a phase historically accompanied by active position accumulation.

Earlier, the head of research at K33 Research, Vetle Lunde, stated that long-term Bitcoin holders have nearly completed their phase of active selling.