Kalshi Overtakes Polymarket as Leader in Prediction Market

Kalshi achieves 62.2% of global prediction market trading volume.

Kalshi representatives have announced that the platform has achieved 62.2% of the global trading volume in the prediction market, reports The Block.

A year ago, this figure was only 3.1%. Since the beginning of September, the platform’s turnover has reached $1.39 billion.

The monthly trading volume of its main competitor, Polymarket, stands at $821 million.

Kalshi’s figure surpassed the $1 billion mark in November 2024 amid the US elections. September is still ongoing, and Polymarket could overtake its competitor, but recent months’ trends show growing interest in the alternative.

“It’s amazing to see how quickly Kalshi is growing,” commented the company’s head, Tarek Mansour.

Activity on both platforms significantly decreased after last year’s US elections, but analysts predict further growth in the sector. According to media reports, companies may receive higher valuations in upcoming investment rounds. 

Polymarket is also preparing to re-enter the US market following a 2022 agreement to block access for American users.

Competition: The Soul of the Market

The platforms remain leading players in the prediction segment, where users can bet on the outcomes of various events. However, their business models differ significantly.

Polymarket is a decentralized platform with a focus on the crypto market. It has recently intensified efforts to resume operations in the US through the acquisition of the derivatives exchange QCEX. 

Kalshi already operates as a regulated American exchange. Recently, the platform has been striving to strengthen its position in the crypto segment, including through integration with the Solana and Base networks.

Users attempt to predict not only cryptocurrency prices but also corporate financial results and key economic decisions. According to Bernstein data, the volume of trades on the question of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed exceeded $200 million on Polymarket and amounted to $85 million on Kalshi.

Bernstein analysts note that prediction platforms are emerging as a new interface for disseminating information, combining cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and news. 

Coinbase and Robinhood are striving to establish themselves in this segment, offering users the chance to bet on the outcomes of sports events in popular leagues, including the NFL. In the US, sports betting has already become a multibillion-dollar market.

Previously, Polymarket announced the launch of a market for predicting public companies’ earnings.