Lawyer estimates SEC’s chances of victory in Ripple case at 3%

The probability of a ‘full victory’ by the SEC in the litigation against Ripple stands at just 3%, according to attorney John Deaton.

During the Good Morning Crypto podcast, the founder of the CryptoLaw firm assessed Ripple’s chances of a favorable verdict at 25%. He also said there is a 50% probability that the fintech firm will win a partial victory.

Given the transcript of former SEC official William Hinman’s speech, the token could gain commodity status.

“I think XRP itself will not be deemed a security, and secondary-market sales support my view. Even if the judge rules that Ripple violated the law, that ruling would not apply to the secondary market,” Deaton explained.

The lawyer gave a forecast for the token’s price after a favorable ruling. In his view, a price between $2 and $10 would be ‘fair’.

According to CoinGecko, at the time of writing XRP is trading at $0.5334, up 1.5% on the day.

In December 2020 the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, accusing the company of selling unregistered securities in the form of XRP tokens.

Fox Business later published a major investigation into the case. Journalists concluded that the officials behind the filing may have been affiliated with Ethereum.

Joseph Hall, a partner at the Davis Polk law firm and a former SEC official, said there were high odds that the regulator would lose the case on the merits. However, he expressed doubt about a speedy end to the proceedings.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse estimated legal costs of the SEC litigation at $200 million.

In late March 2023 reports emerged that the company had good odds of a favorable resolution to the litigation.

In April, lawyer Jeremy Hogan stated that XRP is not a security and only ‘might fit the definition of an investment contract’.