Lawyer forecasts timeline for the SEC’s Ripple lawsuit

Lawyer Jeremy Hogan outlined the main paths for the development of the SEC against Ripple and allowed its completion in 2027.

I’m seeing some confusion as to what could happen next in the Ripple v. SEC case now that the Judge denied an interlocutory appeal.

Sooo, I have outlined every possibility and provided the exact chance of each possibility happening and how long each would take. Exactly.

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— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023

In Hogan’s view, the regulator has no ‘truly good options’ on the path to delivering a final court ruling.

In July 2023, the Southern District of New York court concluded that software sales and other distributions of the token did not constitute an offer and sale of investment contracts. After that the SEC filed an interlocutory appeal, which the judge rejected.

In this context Hogan suggested that with a 39.5% probability the Commission would continue proceedings against individual defendants in April 2024.

That means the appellate decision is unlikely to be issued before 2026. Even if the SEC obtains a positive ruling on the motion, the case would be returned to Judge Analisa Torres for further consideration.

The most likely final date for the proceeding in this scenario is June 14, 2027, the lawyer says.

He sees a second possible path for SEC action as settling claims against individual defendants and filing an appeal of the Ripple ruling. Hogan estimated the odds of such a resolution at 32.1%.

‘This is the best option for the SEC. For that reason I doubt they will go through with it,’ said the lawyer.

Under that scenario the process would still drag on for “months and months,” but could finish on August 14, 2026, the lawyer noted.

The Commission could also pursue a settlement of the proceedings with all defendants. Hogan called this a good option for the SEC, which would be able to report yet another win over the ‘bad guys’ and secure from them ‘a big cheque’.

However, despite the court ruling clearing the way for the regulator, he did not show a propensity for compromise, Hogan says. Thus the probability of such a Commission decision is 19%.

‘Finally, something else could happen that I haven’t thought of. Who knows. The odds here are 8.7%,’ the lawyer concluded.

One of the defendants — Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse — described the arguments of the SEC in the case as ‘absurd’.