Matrixport forecasts Bitcoin at $50,000 in January

If the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves the spot Bitcoin-ETF in early January, the price of the first cryptocurrency by the end of the month will rise to $50,000. Such a forecast was provided by Matrixport experts.

The company’s specialists drew a parallel with the launch of CME Group’s cash-settled Bitcoin futures in 2017. Then the exchange announced the derivatives at the end of October, and trading began in early December. In that period, the price of digital gold surged by 196%.

Experts also recalled their forecast of reaching $45,000 by year-end. Historically, Bitcoin’s price often rose in the period between Christmas and New Year — in 2020 it gained 22% during these days.

Growing optimism about Bitcoin ETFs

There is already television advertising for a Bitcoin ETF. During the holidays, the frequency of ads will rise, drawing investor attention to the asset, experts say.

At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading around $43,600 (CoinGecko). The day before the asset tested the $44 000 level.

Earlier, Matrixport noted a period of Bitcoin consolidation from December 8. However, by the end of the month, the company’s analysts expect a pickup in price growth.

Industry experts expect approval of spot Bitcoin ETF filings around January 8-10, 2024.

FOX: Sources close to these firms say recent guidance from SEC officials is that a green light will likely come by Jan. 10, 2024. BlackRock has made receiving SEC approval for its proposed bitcoin ETF a key corporate priority. https://t.co/E2GmvCK2Sq

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 21, 2023

In recent months, applicants have been engaging in active consultations with the SEC. According to Fox Business, the Commission’s main requirement is that fund shares be redeemed exclusively for cash — they cannot be exchanged for securities of other investment products or other assets. Supposedly this would pose a barrier to money laundering.

There are 13 applications under review by the regulator, including from BlackRock, VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity Investments and WisdomTree. Some companies have already made changes to the documentation.

According to Fox Business, applicants are “optimistic” about the regulator’s decision.

Outlook for 2024

Matrixport experts express confidence that Bitcoin will continue to rise in the coming year. Among the factors supporting this (in addition to the launch of spot-based ETFs) they cited the expected in April halving and an improvement in U.S. macroeconomic indicators. Historically, the price of digital gold reached a new high 6-8 months after the block reward halving.

Several experts, including Messari CEO Ryan Selkis and CryptoQuant specialists, agree with the positive impact of these driving forces on Bitcoin.

Some even set a target of $160,000 per coin. They also expect that after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the price of the first cryptocurrency will exceed $50,000.

In a bolder forecast, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow predicted the asset could rise to $1 million per coin within days or weeks after spot Bitcoin ETFs appear.

Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano agrees with the ultra-bullish impulse from such products entering the market, but warned that rapid Bitcoin price growth should not be expected.

Industry veteran and Blockstream CEO Adam Back is confident that the $100,000 level will be breached even before the halving.

Former BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes also believes that the appearance of spot Bitcoin ETFs will lift the price of the cryptocurrency, but is not convinced about the benefits of these products for the cryptocurrency.