Certain derivatives metrics suggest the digital asset market may be shifting towards a bearish trend, analysts at CoinDesk note.
One such indicator is the 180-day imbalance between bitcoin call and put options, calculated using trading data from Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange.
At the time of writing, the indicator stood at -0.42, according to Amberdata. This is the lowest level since June 2023. A negative imbalance suggests traders favour put options, often used as a hedge against price declines. This situation can be seen as a sign of market participants’ caution or growing bearish sentiment over the medium term.
Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, believes that a shift towards puts is often perceived as a change in the “market regime.”
$BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift.
Keeping a close eye on this… pic.twitter.com/XTDT0i0SRn
— Imran Lakha | Options Insight (@options_insight) August 19, 2025
The negative value can be seen as a trend break: for two years, the indicator remained in the “green zone,” indicating a preference for bullish call options.
Bitcoin has declined only about 9% from its all-time high above $124,000, recorded about a week ago. However, investors’ “long-term” sentiment has already shifted into “bearish territory.”
Lakha noted that the focus on puts has become more pronounced amid the price correction.
“Bitcoin shows no call option premium until March 2026. The price drop triggered purchases of August and September puts with a strike around $110,000. Calls and their spreads are being sold as longs reduce risks ahead of Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday,” the expert noted.
Most market participants expect the monetary regulator to signal the start of policy easing in September. If these expectations are confirmed, a correction is possible, noted Nansen analyst Nikolai Sondergaard.
“At this stage, the market generally expects rate cuts, and this is largely priced in. If Powell gives the expected signal, crypto may enter a sideways trend or show a slight decline — a classic sell the news dynamic. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a deeper or faster rate-cutting cycle than anticipated, it could spark new demand for risk and lay the foundation for the next bullish impulse,” the analyst shared.
According to Greeks.live, options expired on August 22:
- 34,000 BTC ($3.82 billion) with a put/call ratio of 1.3 and “Max Pain” at $118,000;
- 220,000 ETH ($950 million) with a put/call ratio of 0.82 and Max Pain at $4,250.
【August 22 Options Data】
34,000 BTC options expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.3, a Maxpain point of $118,000, and a notional value of $3.82 billion.
220,000 ETH options expired, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, a Maxpain point of $4,250, and a notional value of $950… pic.twitter.com/bE30O6ZvGr— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) August 22, 2025
Thus, short-term contracts based on the leading cryptocurrency indicated bearish sentiment; Ethereum supporters are more optimistic.
“The options market shows divergence, but factors pointing to future volatility still prevail,” explained Greeks.live analysts.
Another Bearish Signal
Another signal of a potential shift to a bearish trend came from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator.
The tool, developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy, is used to identify reversals and assess trend strength. It is based on the analysis of ranges or bands formed by short- and long-term moving averages (MA).
The chart above shows that the price of bitcoin has fallen below the cluster of MAs. This indicates a weakening of bullish positions, a possible long-term shift to bearish sentiment, likely increased selling pressure, and thus the risk of a significant price decline.
Back in April, Capriole founder Charles Edwards suggested a massive bitcoin sell-off amid declining corporate demand.