On the eve of the expected halving in April 2024, digital gold could rise to $35,448 and then enter a rally to $147,843. Such forecasts presented by Pantera Capital analysts.
The figures were derived from the Stock-to-Flow metric. The model forecasts Bitcoin’s price based on the stock-to-production ratio (SF).
The halving has historically been associated with price increases for the premier cryptocurrency due to its influence on the stock-to-production ratio.
According to the cycles, Bitcoin’s price should have bottomed on December 30, 2022. In fact, this occurred almost two months earlier, amid the FTX collapse.
“The last episode in 2020 reduced the supply of new coins by 43% relative to the previous event. … If history repeats itself, at the next halving the price would rise to $35,000 on the eve and $148,000 after the mining reward is halved,” — the analysts calculated.
The current price is about 7% above the model, they added.
Pantera Capital noted that Bitcoin has endured the longest period of negative annual returns in its history—15 months (from February 2022 to June 2023).
“We believe the markets have fallen enough. We expect a rally into the New Year with a subsequent acceleration after the halving,” — the experts forecast.
According to the analysts, the recent court ruling on XRP and BlackRock‘s application to launch a Bitcoin-ETF will also provide \”a strong foundation for the next bull market in digital assets.\”
Earlier, trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe forecast a rise to $50,000 in the run-up to the halving.
On December 12, 2022, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes stated that Bitcoin had bottomed, and five months later forecasted a new rally for 2024.