Polymarket Users Lower Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds to 84%

Prediction platform Polymarket’s odds suggest an 84% chance of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by January 15. Traders have wagered $8.23 million on this outcome.

In the past 24 hours, the probability has decreased by 5%. On January 10, it momentarily reached 100%. The lower boundary of fluctuations over the past week was 78%.

In terms of locked funds, bets on the ETF surpass other events such as the US presidential election winner ($4.54 million) and the Democratic candidate ($3.36 million).

In the “cryptocurrency” category, platform users can also place bets on Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching various levels, as well as airdrops by LayerZero, EigenLayer, and other projects.

Earlier in January, the SEC’s account on platform X was compromised to publish a fake message about the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

In response, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse advised the regulator to investigate “itself.”

Previously, K33 analysts noted a decrease in the likelihood of sell-offs following Bitcoin ETF approval due to a wave of long position liquidations.