Bitcoin’s price responded to headlines about a possible end to the US government shutdown. During the US session it fell, but in Asia it stabilised around ~$104,000, noted analysts at QCP Capital.
The US Senate approved a stopgap budget through 30 January, which should avoid government disruptions over the holidays. The bill now goes to the House of Representatives, after which the president must sign it.
Experts called the move “kicking the can”. It removes immediate risks but does not address structural problems. A new flare-up is possible early next year, QCP believes.
According to Polymarket, the probability that the shutdown ends between 12 and 15 November is 98%.
With official statistics suspended by the shutdown, the market is leaning on private indicators. According to QCP, the NFIB small-business activity index showed deteriorating sentiment. Firms report slowing sales and hiring difficulties. That aligns with ADP data pointing to a weaker labour market.
In the near term, budget uncertainty, credit volatility and weak economic data will keep weighing on crypto, the analysts forecast. Toward year-end, though, digital gold and other risk assets could find support from a possible rate cut by the ФРС and resilient corporate earnings.
QCP maintains a positive outlook for 2026, expecting monetary and fiscal policy to support economic growth.
Accumulation begins
Early November saw one of 2025’s largest spikes in bitcoin outflows from Binance. XWIN Research analysts say this points to a shift in investor sentiment and preparation for a new market move.
Massive Bitcoin Outflows from Binance Signal Renewed Accumulation
“Overall, this spike should be viewed as a bullish signal. When BTC supply on exchanges declines, selling pressure diminishes, creating a tighter supply environment.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/akYRzXQUqc
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 12, 2025
They noted that large outflows from trading platforms have historically signalled accumulation rather than panic selling. Investors move assets to cold wallets for long-term storage.
The current set-up coincided with the end of a consolidation phase around $103,000. This may indicate that whales and institutions are preparing for the next macroeconomic move.
Some of this activity may have been linked to Binance’s internal wallet restructuring. Big exchanges often redistribute funds—this shows up in the data. However, on-chain analysis indicates that most transactions were user withdrawals rather than technical movements.
Over the same period, activity on OTC platforms increased—another indirect sign of institutional investors executing private deals.
Analysts view the outflow spike as a bullish signal. A declining supply of bitcoin on exchanges reduces selling pressure. Together with inflows of stablecoins to major platforms, this suggests stealth accumulation. Historically, such trends have preceded price recoveries.
The $107,000 level
An analyst going by DaanCrypto noted that on lower timeframes bitcoin is trending higher. For continuation, however, the price needs to break the $107,000 area. In his words, that would be the main condition for a bullish turnaround.
$BTC Trending up on the lower timeframe. But needs to break that $107K area. If it can do so, it would turn this into a decent deviation and retake back into the range.
That’s my main condition for a bullish turnaround.
Stocks almost back to the highs already. We are… pic.twitter.com/x7db5PsLGr
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) November 12, 2025
He also pointed to macro factors. Equities are near all-time highs, and liquidity is expected to improve as the ФРС plans to end quantitative tightening and cut rates.
DaanCrypto cited whale selling tied to the four-year cycle as the main headwind, arguing that this pressure has hampered the market in recent weeks.
The trader stressed that current uncertainty stems from conflicting signals: the daily structure remains bearish, while the weekly and monthly ones are still bullish. He advised traders to focus on major support and resistance levels.
Another view comes from the analyst known as CryptoTony. He also expects a rise to $107,400, but sees that zone as “perfect for opening shorts”.
A bounce up to $107,400 please. Would be the perfect short zone if we get there pic.twitter.com/BTuMVaWS0V
— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) November 12, 2025
In November, Santiment specialists analysed the break in the four-year correlation between bitcoin’s price and the stock market. They concluded that the coin is undervalued.