Researcher: Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $11,000 with 90% probability

Timothy Peterson, manager of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, is convinced that Bitcoin will not fall below $11,000 with a 90% probability.

1/10 Today, the 11th, is #Bitcoin $11K day. There is a 90% chance that bitcoin will never again close below $11K. I’m stopping the #10KCountdown pic.twitter.com/eBt54xrA9e

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

According to him, the resilience of the $11,000 support is underpinned by ‘long-term, fundamental trends’.

Before Bitcoin breached the $11,000 level, the probability of price falling below $10,000 stood at 10%. As of now, that figure has fallen to 2%, according to Peterson’s calculations.

Source: Timothy Peterson’s Twitter account.

According to him, the Metcalfe’s Law-based approach to pricing helped accurately forecast Bitcoin’s price at the end of 2018 and in 2019. Закон Меткалфа for determining periods of alleged market manipulation in 2013. As inputs, he used the number of Bitcoin wallets on blockchain.com.

If I knew how to buy: how to calculate the future price of Bitcoin and other crypto assets

According to him, the Metcalfe’s Law-based approach to determining value helped accurately forecast Bitcoin’s price at the end of 2018 and in 2019.

3/10 Since then I have correctly forecast #bitcoin year-end prices in 2018… pic.twitter.com/9iSPuM4sYz

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

Peterson presented the forecast on January 3, 2019, ‘in honor of the genesis block’s 10th anniversary’.

4/10 …and in 2019. Note the 2020 #bitcoin forecast. This report was released Jan 3 2019, in honor of the genesis block 10th anniversary. pic.twitter.com/2zYL455PVg

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

In a June 2020 article, ‘Why Bitcoin’s price never looks back’, the researcher refined the forecast for November.

5/10 In June 2020 I used Metcalfe’s law to forecast *daily* #bitcoin prices through November https://t.co/87wc13s8Ur pic.twitter.com/4aHEuNtNgp

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

According to him, the Metcalfe’s Law-based approach to pricing helped forecast Bitcoin’s price for November 2020 with 90% probability.

6/10 On November 30th, 2020, #Bitcoin‘s price will be at or above $12,000 (90% probability). Write it down, screenshot it, whatever. I don’t care if you believe me or not. pic.twitter.com/EpmDdAPu2T

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

The screenshot shows the researcher’s confidence that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in January 2024 and $1 million in March 2028.

7/10 Metcalfe’s law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity and E=mc2. I wrote 80+ pages of #bitcoin research backed by thousands of pages of supporting financial economics, as well as taught 2 semesters of MBA courses on network valuation. https://t.co/n9atKeSuMP pic.twitter.com/14P4S8UgSK

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

‘Metcalfe’s Law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity or E=mc²’, wrote Peterson.

To the next tweet, the researcher attached a video briefly describing Metcalfe’s Law in the case of Bitcoin.

Finally, Peterson promised to publish in January forecasts for 2022 for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Chainlink.

10/10 You’ll see some amazing things happen with #bitcoin in 2021. In January 2021 I’ll release the reports for Bitcoin 2022, Ethereum 2022, and Chainlink 2022. Keep an eye out for them here: https://t.co/lJqaoWXghE and follow @canedigital for news and updates. pic.twitter.com/v2NNnJlzyJ

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredcrypto) October 11, 2020

The Winklevoss twins are confident that Bitcoin could surpass the $500,000 mark. In their view, the leading cryptocurrency outperforms gold as a store of value.

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