Samson Mow Predicts Bitcoin Surge Amid Overheated Gold Market

Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold, suggesting a potential price reversal.

The leading cryptocurrency is undervalued “compared to gold and the global money supply,” suggesting a potential price reversal, according to JAN3 CEO Samson Mow.

Bitcoin is ~24-66% below its trend relative to gold’s market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended.

When the BTC/gold ratio’s Z-score drops below -2, it has always preceded major rallies.

Mean reversion is the most probable move next. 🚀

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) February 28, 2026

According to the expert, bitcoin’s prices remain 24-66% below trend values relative to these assets, while the gold market appears overheated.

Mow highlighted bitcoin’s Z-score—a metric indicating the deviation of the price from its historical average. Values below zero traditionally suggest the asset is undervalued.

Historically, a drop in the bitcoin-to-gold Z-score below -2 has preceded major rallies. Currently, the indicator stands at -1.24.

In November 2022, amid the collapse of the FTX exchange, the index fell below -3. In the following 12 months, bitcoin’s price increased by more than 150%.

A similar situation occurred in March 2020 during the market crash caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The metric fell below -2, and bitcoin found a bottom around $3,700. Over the next year, the asset appreciated by 300%, reaching a new all-time high of approximately $69,000 by November 2021.

Demand for precious metals as a safe haven has significantly impacted the RWA sector. The market capitalization of the tokenized gold category has already exceeded $6 billion, with a daily trading volume of $1.55 billion.

The main beneficiaries of this trend are the stablecoins XAUT with a capitalization of $3 billion and PAXG at $2.5 billion.

The liquidity shift towards safe havens is also evident in the perp-DEX segment. On-chain statistics from the Hyperliquid platform indicate that perpetual contracts for tokenized gold and silver have become leaders in trading volumes.

At the time of writing, gold and silver are trading at $5,410 and $95.62, respectively.

Traders are actively using HIP-3 markets to hedge portfolios with traditional assets while remaining within the DeFi ecosystem.

In February, the Kraken exchange launched 24/7 trading of perpetual futures on tokenized assets.