The current market situation is explained by the practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
The market has been range-bound for more than a week. We’ll assess the chances of a breakout in either direction, as well as interesting zones for potential trades.
S&P 500 index. On the hourly time frame a flat range of $4,270–$4,430 is clearly delineated. At the moment, the price is attempting to hold above the upper boundary, which, if successful, would positively impact Bitcoin.
On the weekly time frame, last week closed with a strong pin bar, but more importantly, a historically large volume traded, which can be characterised as buying.
At the moment, the equity market looks fairly confident. The historically traded volume and a hold above it are likely to push the price higher. There is no talk of new all-time highs, but near-term the outlook remains bullish.
Bitcoin. On the hourly time frame, a clear range of $35,600–$38,800 is in play. The price is now above the PoC, with two factors indicating a modest buyer aggression. The seller attack angles in the range are weakening. A massively large selling volume on January 26 did not yield results.
Expectations for movement should be drawn from edge to edge due to the prolonged stay in the range. Given the bullish setup on the S&P 500, as well as bullish signals during the flat, at the moment the price is at the upper boundary or above.
Judging by the medium and higher timeframes, the situation remains short. The price is close to a very strong level of $40,000 both technically and psychologically.
Within the range of $35,600–$38,800, a false breakout toward $40,000 is possible. The main expectation after a brief rise is another move down into the $34,000 area.
A touch of $42,300 would be grounds to suppose that the bearish three-month trend has been broken.
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