Trader cites signs Bitcoin is ready to resume its rally

Practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.

Bitcoin has moved close to the upper boundary of the sideways range of $53,000–$59,500, where it stood throughout March.

In a classical scenario, the most likely path would be a bounce off the upper boundary and a renewed rotation in the balance.

However, looking at additional signs, one can easily determine that the current probability of breaking out of the range and forming a new all-time high via an impulse is significantly higher.

First, when considering the cumulative measures of total accumulation, one can notice abnormally high negative delta readings, indicating substantial selling dominance over the past three weeks.

Nevertheless, given that we are in a trading range, this parameter should be interpreted as the strength of a limit buyer.

Second, looking at more local movements within the balance, the last buying wave reveals two micro-accumulations that, on closer inspection, point to the absorption of buy orders — i.e., loading up by large market participants.

Third, turning to Volume Spread Analysis and, in particular, Wyckoff’s \”reaccumulation\” model (which, in fact, he did not invent), the current Bitcoin oscillations, if not perfectly, then with striking accuracy, mirror the famous pattern. According to the theory and practical experience, such formations point to further upside.

Thus, we consider two primary scenarios, both envisaging an exit from accumulation to the upside.

1. Formation of the \”squeeze\” pattern around the $59,500 level. This scenario contemplates relatively small pullbacks into the large-volume clusters (green scenario).
2. Given the fading pace of buyers and the formation of a new micro-balance at the day’s extremes, we do not rule out a more substantial pullback to the POC (point of control — the price level at which the most contracts were executed over a given period) of the entire accumulation around $56,000 (yellow scenario).

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