A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
Bitcoin is in an ascending channel, and there are scenarios to assess for future movement. However, consideration of cryptocurrency price prospects should begin with an analysis of the stock market, given its direct dependence on global conditions.
S&P 500
January saw historically anomalous volumes in the S&P 500. Comparable figures were also recorded toward the end of spring.
The declining low after the volume formation in May was surpassed in June. The price also attempted to stage a rebound.
So far, the key level at $4199 has not been breached, and the downside momentum persists. Locally: expectations of further declines and a new local minimum.
Given the complex geopolitical situation (crisis in Europe, recession in the American economy, possible tensions between the United States and China, the war in Ukraine), events are only beginning to unfold. On this backdrop, a bottom in the S&P 500 is unlikely.
For a fundamental change in the situation, the index needs to clear the $4199 level and, on the next leg down, form a low higher than the last local minimum. Then one can talk about an attempt to reverse the downward dynamic.
Bitcoin
The ascending channel, in place for about a month and a half, continues to be confirmed by weak new highs.
It is worth noting the character of movement within the ascending channel. Buyer aggression grows as the attack angle increases. The positive is that the price has actively bounced off the PoC and re-established above the area of $22,100-$22,600.
For the S&P 500, in the near term, a high likelihood remains that new lows will be reached again. This will inevitably pull Bitcoin along. The price is currently in a range and may stay there for several more weeks.
A likely decline to around $21,000 is very likely, or a test of the ascending channel at its top — around $17,000 (the worst-case scenario).
Earlier Arcane Research analysts suggested that Bitcoin’s price would soon reach the $27,000-$28,000 range.
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