The practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.
The S&P 500, as the main market guide, is currently being bought up briskly. A HL & HH structure has formed, and the index has held above $4,399, i.e., above the second key level. Also on the medium timeframes there is a double-bottom structure with a measured move of about 66 points, near the $4,470 level.
It should be noted that above this level passes the PoC of the latest growth wave, as well as the first of three key levels. Long Bitcoin positions would be properly closed when the index rises by the height of the double bottom. At the moment, the local priority is growth.
Bitcoin is currently little responsive to the laws of classical technical analysis, as it has almost 100% correlation with the S&P 500 index. With such a high level of dependency, analyzing digital gold as a standalone asset makes little sense.
This once again proves how immature, dependent, manipulative, and risky Bitcoin is. Nevertheless, several points can be noted.
Two attempts at a shakeout can be characterized either as a double bottom or as a V-shaped reversal (if you do not count the first shadow). On strong buybacks, a few EQLs have already been unwound. It should be noted that the PoC of accumulation passes at the $45,900 level — in this zone Bitcoin will face a significant resistance.
The range of $45 164-$47 050 remains the area where one should look for short positions. A close above $48 000 would allow revisiting the situation in favor of longs. Against the backdrop of a favorable stock index situation there is a slight tilt toward growth. In the medium term, however, the expectation is for further decline.
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