Trader outlines likely scenarios for Bitcoin price movement

A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.

After the latest review, Bitcoin fell below $18,000 but could not hold. Let us reassess the situation in light of new factors.

S&P 500

Yesterday’s rebound formed on a fairly strong pin bar. But there is still no volume. The LH&LL structure has been updated. The negatives are reinforced by consumer-inflation data — this indicates that ФРС will raise the base rate again and, moreover, will restrain the money-printing.

Historically, most aggressive pin bars are absorbed by price. Therefore, in the near term a small wave of decline is quite likely. Ahead of the U.S. Senate elections on November 8, the price could rise (three-to-four weeks).

What happens next? Given high inflation and thin volumes on the S&P 500 at roughly current levels, a deep downturn remains expected.

BTC

Bitcoin on the daily chart is clearly signalling a breakout from a wedge. Statistically, wedges break through during flat markets rarely lead to a strong move. But in this case a rise is likely at least because of the strong expectation among most market participants.

In favor of a mid-term update of the bottom is the analysis of liquidity shelves — technical levels where stop-loss orders cluster. The more of them and the closer they are to each other, the higher the probability that the entire range will be swept.

On the futures, the liquidity level of $18 100 (forming a new one) has been updated. The two previous levels remained untouched. Core liquidity remains unassembled.

On the eight-hour chart, a powerful pin bar (\”hammer\”) has formed. Therefore, it is very logical to expect the price soon in the $18,500 area.

In the range-bound $18 400-20 400, which has persisted for almost two months, there were two spikes of abnormally high volume. Both times there was an attempt to push lower. In VSA/Price Action terms — there is no progress, nor a result; the volume can be described as stalling. Somewhere it should be realized. A rise is logical.

Market sentiment analysis remains negative. There is high buying activity.

Sentiment opinions have begun to change. In weeks when sentiment-roundups were released, the bias was toward a fall (about 60/40). Now it’s 50/50. After the rally there will be a serious tilt toward levels above $25 000. For a mid-term decline, this is excellent.

To what levels will the rise go? Given the large accumulated volume, it is logical to push through the $22 850 mark, behind which a substantial amount of liquidity has accumulated. A little higher lies the PoC of the last wave of growth.

One must understand that most market players, worn down by the current one-and-a-half-month squeeze toward $17 600, will most strongly believe in movement higher around $23 000. Polls will show a huge tilt toward further gains to $25 000-30 000.

Conclusions

The latest rally did not deliver a move to new lows. This does not imply moves to the highs. A downturn is postponed but not cancelled. In the very near term it is logical to expect the hammer to be engulfed. Then a rise to around $23 000, just ahead of the U.S. elections and positive on the stock market. Then a plunge to new lows.

Technical analyses of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 point to a move to new lows with a firm hold.

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