Nikita Semov, a practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, explains the current market situation.
The scenario of a squeeze toward the $32,800 level has played out, and Bitcoin is now trading above $37,000. After breaking $32,800, the mid-term short scenario was cancelled. As we remain within a broad range, the primary priority has shifted to a rally toward $41,000.
Regarding the short squeeze on Binance Futures toward $48,000, a closer look at the impulse suggests this is most likely an error by a bot or algorithm. Therefore such a movement is unlikely to constitute a false breakout of the upper boundary of the accumulation around $41,100.
As the flat phase continues, the main focus will be on approaching its upper boundary at the aforementioned level. A false breakout is also possible. Around $41,100, it is prudent to monitor the selling response.
Three main scenarios can be highlighted:
- The rally to $41,100 with a potential false breakout of the extreme at $41,400. If it extends, the target range would be $43,000–$45,000;
- Should selling reappear around $41,100, a move toward the opposite boundary of the balance at $31,200 could be expected. Given the clearly preserved liquidity shelf with six touches at $28,800, a move to $24,100 cannot be ruled out;
- If, however, it manages to hold above $41,400 and there are signs of a genuine breakout in the form of an orderly sequence of higher highs, and VA moves with the trajectory, this accumulation could be deemed to have been broken to the upside. In that case the initial upside targets would be $50,000 and $56,200.
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