Trader Outlines When Bitcoin Could Break $20,000

The current market situation is explained by a practising trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov.

Context Analysis

Comparing the duration of waves and their attack angle, we see that the seller is weakening (wave DE [19°; 260 bars] weaker than wave BC [77°; 28 bars]). The buyer, by contrast, is strengthening positions (CD [56°; 92 bars] against EF [54°; 48 bars]).

In simpler terms, demand in this range-bound market exceeds supply. Purchases with a breakout through $20 000 are anticipated.

In the context of order-flow analysis, the seller showed weakness; the move was a false breakout of the trendline. Meanwhile, the buyer demonstrated strength. Purchases through $20,000 are likely.

Order Flow Analysis

The weekly-timeframe sell spread in the matrix is small. The sales are similar to the previous wave CD — evidence of weakness in supply.

Low volume in a bar is a sign of weak movement, coupled with the absence of a volume reaction at the selling level. Progress in bars 1 and 2 is far lower than in bar 3. The main volume by profile is distributed toward the lows.

Japanese Candlesticks

A single-candle “umbrella” pattern, a bearish-weakness formation, is an additional sign in favour of forthcoming purchases. The bar for the current week is expected to close higher.

Price Action and VSA

The BC wave surpassed the high of wave AB (point A). The waves are quite similar up to the breakout moment, which indicates parity between demand and supply (35 bars of selling versus 32 to cover the same distance). However, the local flag-pattern wave is a clear sign of weak buying.

Wave CD over 10 bars yields movement stronger than the buying wave DE on breakout with the formation of a UT false breakout. Thus, the angle of attack by buyers is slightly weaker, and the decline proceeds on reduced volume. Since there are no reactions from the level or from the order block, we expect the buyers’ momentum to continue through the New Year.

Analysis of Horizontal Volumes and Delta

We have returned to the price zone of the selling balance and continue rotation around the POC [1]. Given the failed attempt to extend lower, and the sellers’ inability to defend an important level, we expect a breakout of this balance to the upside, with a close and a new high.

To confirm a long scenario, one must overcome the upper boundary of VA — $19,600. Until that moment, opening long positions is extremely risky [2].

In the event of a pullback that could occur within the balance, wait for the price to fall to the range $18,700–$18,900. It is in this zone that a micro-accumulation by buyers formed, and the December VWAP also paused at these levels.

From a delta perspective, the balance on the left was fully selling, confirming the distribution of control over horizontal delta [1].

Analyzing the approach to retesting this accumulation, note the formation of delta arrays for buying. This is a sign of buyers’ strength [2].

Looking at the histogram delta, one can see strong buyer dominance on the upward wave. Control remains contested; both sides operate within the rules of the balancing structure, so a test ahead of a new high is plausible [3].

An additional sign of the sellers’ attempt to defend the area is candles with long shadows, confirming the operation of limit sells through delta inefficiency [4]. Given the clear interest of sellers in this zone, their reaction is extremely weak, as seen in Price Action.

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