The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price cannot be attributed to a single cause, according to analysts at investment firm NYDIG. Market pressure has resulted from a combination of several macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, reports CoinDesk.
Capital Shifts to AI and Tech IPOs
NYDIG believes Bitcoin is competing for capital with the AI sector, which has been one of the growth drivers in public and private markets over the past 18 months. Some investors with similar risk profiles may have shifted funds from crypto assets to companies related to artificial intelligence.
Another factor mentioned in the report is the anticipation of a new wave of tech IPOs. Companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks, and Anduril were highlighted.
Regulatory Uncertainty
Among crypto-specific factors, experts pointed to a statement by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the seizure of approximately $1 billion in crypto assets linked to Iran.
They noted that there are few public details about this incident, but the topic itself may have heightened some investors’ doubts about the independence of digital assets from the traditional financial system.
Impact of Strategy
NYDIG also highlighted the sale of 32 BTC by the company Strategy. In terms of supply, this amounts to about $2.5 million—an insignificant volume for a market with daily turnovers in the billions of dollars.
The report emphasized the psychological effect: since 2020, Strategy has been one of the most consistent buyers of Bitcoin, so the shift from buying to selling could have influenced market perception.
Quantum Threat
Another topic was the discussion of quantum risks. The report states that earlier in 2026, Google researchers reduced estimates of the computational resources needed to break elliptic curve cryptography, including secp256k1, which is used in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Later, a French cryptographer presented a detailed architecture of a scheme with similar estimates.
NYDIG believes this does not pose an immediate threat but narrows the gap between theoretical and practical vulnerability.
Awaiting Cycle Bottom
In the on-chain part of the report, NYDIG noted that the market has undergone a significant reset, but there are not enough signals of a definitive bottom yet. The current cycle’s low of $59,750 represents a 52.7% drop from the peak, whereas in previous cycles, the decline reached 75–90%. The MVRV ratio has fallen to 1.2, the share of supply in profit has decreased to 49%, and the 1x MVRV level is around $53,700.
The company believes the market shows signs of capitulation, but the conclusion about a formed bottom depends on whether institutional support has changed the cycle’s structure or merely postponed a deeper correction.
Back in February, analyst Willy Woo predicted the end of Bitcoin’s bear trend in the fourth quarter of 2026.