Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes bitcoin could set a new all-time high at $125,100 within a week. He expects, however, one more major correction first.
It should be noted that King $Bitcoin experienced a mild 15% correction from the ATH
This confirms the old saying:“The bigger the junk, the deeper the dunk”
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 12, 2025
According to him, two scenarios are possible. The first is a “huge shakeout,” followed by a swift run to ATH.
“Or [the second scenario] is a break of the parabola, which in the past every time led to a 75% price drop. I think the era of 80% declines is behind us, but perhaps [price returns] to $50,000–60,000,” Brandt said.
On October 11 the market slumped after US President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Liquidations exceeded $19 billion. Bitcoin fell from $121,000 to $102,000.
At the time of writing, the digital gold trades at $113,177, up 1% on the day, according to CoinGecko.
Leverage risks
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards reminded traders to be cautious when using borrowed funds.
“This weekend was a reminder to be very careful with leverage. Even multipliers above 1.5x are dangerous,” he said.
He called the volatility temporary and summed up his outlook for the coming weeks in one word: “up”.
Macro and the “Goldilocks zone”
Other analysts also remain optimistic, citing macroeconomic signals. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said the crypto market has presented a buying opportunity.
There you have it, QT is over. Back up the fucking truck and buy everything. pic.twitter.com/kQbpBSOlOU
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 14, 2025
He pointed to remarks by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, that the quantitative tightening program is “over”.
Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, believes economic data now play the central role for digital gold.
“US inflation hit 2.9% in August — the highest level since January. At the same time, the US labor market is showing signs of weakness. The Fed has a mandate to ensure full employment, and it seems inevitable that we will see further rate cuts this month. This is a ‘Goldilocks zone’ for bitcoin,” he explained.
“Speculative phase”
Bitcoin has entered a “speculative phase” as new large players take control, according to XWIN Research analysts.
Bitcoin Market Enters the “Speculative Phase” as New Whales Take Control
“The key signal to watch next will be a decline in STH share, which would mark the start of a renewed accumulation phase led by long-term investors.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/YWmJcmwDSv
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 15, 2025
The NUPL indicator has reached +0.52. Historically, this zone marks a transition from optimism to euphoria. In the 2017 and 2021 cycles, readings above 0.5 signaled speculative activity.
About 97% of the market’s coin supply is currently in profit.
At the same time, the share of short-term holders (STH) in bitcoin’s realized capitalization has hit a record 44%. This indicates that long-term holders (LTH) are taking profits while less experienced players — “new whales” — step in.
In past cycles, STH dominance coincided with the final phase of the rally. This time, however, the structure differs, the analysts noted. Selling pressure is being absorbed by three factors: capital inflows into spot ETF, growing liquidity of stablecoins and institutional participation.
On-chain data point to a “mature speculative phase” fueled by liquidity and steady capital inflows. The next important signal, they argue, will be a decline in the STH share — indicating a shift to a new accumulation phase led by long-term investors.
Earlier, bitcoin’s correlation with gold nearly reached an all-time high.