The latest slide in the price of the leading cryptocurrency is being driven by large market players rather than retail panic, according to technical analyst Peter Brandt.
Hey crypto followers $BTC
The nature of the decline in Bitcoin (now 8 days of lower lows and highs) has all the finger prints of campaign selling, not retail liquidation
Seen this before hundreds of times over the decades
Never know when of course this pattern ends
Note to trolls… pic.twitter.com/THGJpez35F— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 5, 2026
In his view, the pattern bears all the hallmarks of “campaign selling”. Brandt noted that bitcoin has been setting lower lows and lower highs for eight consecutive days. He contrasted this with typical retail liquidations.
“I have seen this hundreds of times over the decades [in markets],” emphasised the analyst.
Brandt added that it is impossible to pinpoint when the pattern will end. He also cautioned that the red lines on his chart are for discussion only and are not a guaranteed forecast.
Michaël van de Poppe, the founder of MN Trading, offered the opposite view. He argues that markets are flashing a bottom, not a peak.
The markets are flashing a bottom signal on #Bitcoin, not a peak signal
The business cycle is at its lowest point in 15 years.
The valuation of #Bitcoin vs. Gold is the lowest on the RSI it has ever been.
The valuation of #Ethereum vs. Silver is the lowest on the weekly and… pic.twitter.com/QQoJdScYS7
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 4, 2026
He offered several arguments:
- the business cycle is at its lowest point in 15 years;
- RSI for the bitcoin/gold and Ethereum/silver pairs has dropped to historic lows;
- mass layoffs and AI hype point to overheating in other sectors.
Van de Poppe called the current moment ideal for accumulation. Among potential tailwinds, he cited a dovish stance from the Fed, QE and the forthcoming passage of the Clarity Act.
Analysts at Binance Research also flagged overheating in the U.S. stock market.
The S&P 500 rose to historic high, alongside the ratio of U.S. stock market margin to M2 (now at 5.4% near the 00 & 08 crisis level ) indicating a leverage-driven blow-off may happen anytime. If the market begins to pull back, it will inevitably result in a broader asset decline… https://t.co/BvFfcDcCyI pic.twitter.com/vN5g71MQwB
— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) February 5, 2026
The S&P 500 has hit a record high alongside elevated margin debt. The ratio of borrowed funds to the money supply (M2) has approached levels seen around the 2000 and 2008 crises.
Crypto adds another risk: bitcoin’s aggregated leverage has risen to 5.8%, well above its five-year average of 4.88%.
BTC aggregated leverage ratio currently sit at 5.8%, above its 5-year average level 4.88%, unlike the despair phase we had seen at the major cyclical bottom. https://t.co/BvFfcDcCyI pic.twitter.com/sfcfsLqjaM
— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) February 5, 2026
According to the analysts, such high leverage is uncharacteristic of the “despair” phase typically seen at cyclical lows.
The exchange’s researchers warned that a correction in equities would inevitably hit digital assets.
Unfortunately cryptos now sit at the end of the liquidity chain, often sold first during major selloffs to raise cash—yet their rebounds are overlooked. When precious metals crashed, cryptos fell too; but when metals recovered, cryptos kept dropping alongside software stocks… https://t.co/BvFfcDcCyI pic.twitter.com/nLQWBn2lHd
— Binance Research (@BinanceResearch) February 5, 2026
Cryptocurrencies sit at the end of the liquidity “food chain”: during major sell-offs investors often dump them first to raise cash.
Is Ethereum overheated?
An analyst using the pseudonym CryptoOnchain flagged a worrying signal. On January 29, the smoothed transfer count (14SMA) on the Ethereum network reached 1.17m. In the expert’s view, such a sharp surge can foreshadow a market slump.
Ethereum Transfer Count Surge: A Historical Warning Signal?
“While high network activity often signifies adoption, a sudden “parabolic” rise in transfer counts near price highs typically indicates an overheated network.” – By @CryptoOnchain pic.twitter.com/DqEPpv4Lmq
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 5, 2026
A historical read reveals a pattern. Similar bursts of network activity occurred at two key turning points:
- January 18, 2018 — a spike in transactions marked the cycle peak and the start of a prolonged bear trend.
- May 19, 2021 — abnormal activity coincided with a sweeping price crash.
On-chain strength is usually seen as bullish. Yet a parabolic surge near price highs often signals overheating. It typically appears during phases of euphoria or capitulation.
CryptoOnchain linked the current anomaly to whales and long-term holders moving assets to exchanges to take profit.
The setup echoes 2018 and 2021. Despite macro differences, on-chain behaviour points to elevated risks. The expert warned that traders should be cautious and wait for confirming signals of downside in ETH.
On February 5, the price of the leading cryptocurrency fell to $70,119 — the lowest since October 2024. Ethereum followed suit, sliding to $2,079.