Peter Brandt Suggests Bull Market May Have Peaked Despite Halving

The Bitcoin bull market may have already reached its ATH at $73,800 in March, according to technical analyst and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt.

Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped?

Judge for yourself.

It is called Exponential Decay. Read about it here.https://t.co/r1q5k9HA0n

Would love to hear your thoughts about this pic.twitter.com/ql79gqK6rc

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) April 26, 2024

The expert referred to the concept of “exponential decay,” which describes a process of decreasing growth magnitude by a constant percentage over a period.

“Historically, Bitcoin has traded within roughly four-year cycles, often associated withhalvings. Since the initial bull run, there have been three subsequent ones, each 80% less powerful than its predecessor in terms of price growth,” the specialist noted.

According to Brandt’s estimates, if this statistical constant holds true, the [record] ATH of ~$73,800 on March 14, 2024, has already reached the calculated peak.

The table above shows the magnitude or multiple of previous bull runs and Bitcoin’s exponential decays.

The rally to a record $73,800 in March marked a 4.5-fold increase from the bear market low of $15,500 in November 2022 following the FTX collapse. This is already equivalent to “losing 80% of the exponential energy […] of the bull market cycle.”

Brandt noted that the concept will remain under his scrutiny until evidence emerges that “such decay will not affect the bull trend that began in November 2022.”

“In my analysis, I estimated the probability [of such a scenario] at 25%. I have more confidence in the report I published in February. […] The ‘pre/post-halving’ cycle construction suggests that the current bull trend will peak in the $140,000—160,000 range sometime in late summer/early autumn 2025,” the analyst explained.

In February, the specialist indicated $200,000 as a potential target for continued upward momentum.

On April 29, CEO and Director of Research at Quantonomy Giovanni Santostasi questioned the validity of exponential decay. He recalled his model based on long-term power law behavior.

“We have three data points if we exclude the pre-halving period, and effectively only two if considering ratios. This is insufficient for any meaningful statistical analysis,” the mathematician commented.

According to his estimates, the power law model predicts the peak of the fourth cycle around December 2025 at ~$210,000. Calculations show the projected bottom at ~$83,000.

In the next 15 years, Bitcoin could increase 64-fold, reaching $10.63 million, according to Santostasi.

Earlier, in comments to ForkLog, experts explained post-halving dynamics and forecasted future developments.